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Thursday, September 29, 2005

Week 4 Picks and Momentum

I played an $11 SNG on Stars last night, and seated to my right was a player named Momentum. First hand I see him get involved in, he has Jack-rag suited and ends up knocking out the first player when he hits his flush. Next hand, he puts a middle raiser all-in in the BB with his 99 vs. AK. The 99 holds up and another player is out. Next hand, EP raises, LP re-raises, Momentum in the SB re-raises all-in, both raisers call. EP flips up TT, LP flips QQ and Momentum turns up KK. In the the first orbit, this guy knocked out three players and crippled a fourth. It was an incredible run.

I beat him heads-up when my K9 paired a K on the board against his A8. Momentum runs out for everyone. I took a big chunk of my bankroll out of Stars to fund my sportsbook account, so I need some top finishes to rebuild it.

I was tempted to make another parlay bet with my totals this week, but instead I made three straight bets. The odds of winning parlays just aren't good. Here are the picks this week:

Selection 1: NFL Football
Denver Broncos/Jacksonville Jaguars 2-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 36.5 for Game +100

Selection 2: NFL Football
Detroit Lions/Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 34 for Game -103

Selection 3: NFL Football
New York Jets/Baltimore Ravens 2-October-2005 1:05 PM PST
Total Points OVER 31 for Game +101

I think the general public tends to overvalue defense in matchups where sloppy play can create a lot of points. The Ravens defense tends to score a lot of points with Ed Reed, but they've been dormant thus far. Now, they come in against a third-string quarterback, and everyone sees this as an offensive struggle on both sides. Maybe, but these defenses can make things happen with turnovers, and it shouldn't be too hard to run the total over 31, especially if Testaverde has to come in and start airing it out in the second half. And who doesn't think that Cadillac Williams will score 34 points on his own against the Lions?


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8:59 AM  

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