What Would You Say It Is You Do Here?

B-Sides & Defcon 2011

2011-07-30T11:17:00.002-05:00

Vegas gets more and more jammed up with good talks every year. It took me several passes through the various schedules to narrow down what I'd like to see this year. I'm skipping Black Hat. Now that I'm no longer part of of the cash-rich and irresponsibly frivolous financial services industry, I actually have to justify the expense for these things, and Black Hat didn't make the cut. They have some fine speakers and talks, but not $1600 worth, after you factor in the repeated/dated talks, and the talks that will be available at other venues. Have fun at your security trade show, dudes!

So, these are the talks I'm hoping to get to. If history is any guide, I may make it to half. Hopefully, the return of talks broadcast over the hotel TV system will help me get more in at Defcon. There are a couple big gaps in my b-sides schedule; I am working a couple security shifts, and so I didn't put down talks for those windows.

Wednesday - B-sides

10:30 Boyd's OODA and General Predator/Prey theory - Tim Keanini
15:30 Smile for the Grenade! Camera go Bang! - Joshua Marpet & Vlad Gostom

Thursday - B-sides

10:30 Fuck the Penetration Testing Execution Standard (PTES) - Charlie Vedaa
11:30 Cyber Fast Track - Mudge
12:30 Long Beard's Guide to Exploit Dev - Egypt & Bannedit

Friday - Defcon

9:00 - Skytalks - When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro - Databeast
12:00 - Skytalks - If you want to go phishing, you need the right bait… - Jason Malley
13:00 - Insecurity - Marc Weber Tobias
14:00 - Skytalks - Wireless Dirty Sisters – The other RF shit you aren't Looking at, and why you're going to get fscked! - Warezjoe
15:00 - Covert Post-Exploitation Forensics With Metasploit - Wesley McGrew
16:00 - Mamma Don't Let Your Babies - Patrick Engebretson & Dr. Josh Pauli
17:00 - Are You In Yet? - shrdlu (the other one)
17:30 - Kernel Exploitation - Kees Cook
18:00 - Is it 0-day or 0-care? - Panel
19:00 - We owe it all to the Hackers - Steven Levy

Saturday - Defcon

10:00 - "Whoever Fights Monsters..." - Panel
11:00 - Traps of Gold - Andrew Wilson & Michael Brooks
12:00 - Hacking and Forensicating an Oracle Database Server - David Litchfield
13:00 - Skytalks - Advanced High Security Lock Bypass and Its Implications - Steve Pordon
14:00 - Staring into the Abyss - Richard Thieme
15:00 - Metasploit vSploit Modules - Marcus J. Carey , David Rude & Will Vandevanter
16:00 - Sounds Like Botnet - Itzik Kotler & Iftach Ian Amit
17:00 - Skytalks - Contractors, Clearances, and Chaos: Tales from the Crypt - theprez98
18:00 - Big Brother on the Big Screen: Fact/Fiction? - Nicole

Sunday - Defcon

10:00 - Earth vs the Giant Spider - Rob Havelt & Wendel Guglielmetti Henrique
11:00 - Skytalks - The REAL cutting edge to hash cracking - Rick Redman
13:00 - Agnitio: the security code review Swiss army knife. Its static analysis, but not as we know it. - David Ross
15:00 - I Am Not a Doctor but I Play One on Your Network - Tim Elrod & Stefan Morris

Fun Staying out of the Sun

2010-07-24T06:42:00.003-05:00

Lots of good talks at Black Hat, Bsides and DefCon this year. This is the schedule I came up with.

Wednesday - Black Hat

9:00 - 9:50 - Keynote (depends on who it is) Update: Looks like someone from Homeland Security. I'll sleep in and dream about cyberwar and full body scanners, instead.
10:00 - 11:00 - The Emperor Has No Clothes: Insecurities in Security Infrastructure
11:15 - 12:30 - Balancing the Pwn Trade Deficit
Lunch - Margaritaville, anyone?
13:45 - 15:00 - Adventures in Limited User Post Exploitation

Wednesday - Bsides

15:00 - SET 0.6 release with special PHUKD Key
16:00 - Fuck Tools, Do It Yourself Jerk
17:00 - Fierce v2
18:00 - Stupid IP Tables Tricks

Thursday - Bsides

I pulled some security shifts, but fate smiled on me and left one gap

12:00 - Fun with VxWorks

Friday

11:00 - Meet the Feds - CSI:TCP/IP
13:00 - Token Kidnapping's Revenge
15:00 - Tales from the Crypto
16:00 - Like a Boss: Attacking JBoss
17:00 - Mastering the Nmap Scripting Engine

Saturday

10:00 - Exploiting SCADA Systems
12:00 - Insecurity Engineering of Physical Security Systems: Locks, Lies, and Videotape
14:00 - Wardriving the Smart Grid: Practical Approaches to Attacking Utility Packet Radios
15:00 - Physical Security : You're Doing It Wrong!
16:00 - Deceiving the Heavens to Cross the Sea: Using the the 36 stratagems for Social Engineering
18:00 - Blitzableiter - the Release

Sunday

10:00 - Multiplayer Metasploit
11:00 - Constricting the Web: Offensive Python for Web Hackers
12:00 - Powershell...omfg
13:00 - Build Your Own Security Operations Center for Little or No Money
14:00 - Seccubus - Analyzing vulnerability assessment data the easy way...

With any luck, I'll make it to half of those. What's that, you say? Where are the talks about dealing with compliance, or about the speaker's personal experiences in the security industry, or the panels of security rock stars that can just ramble on at each other without making a point? If they add an open bar to any of those, I'll consider it. Otherwise, bring on the tech talks, and keep your security community talks about feelings.

Oh, and please, please....no Sun Tzu.

Oh, damn. I forgot about skytalks. I think I'll also try to get these in.

Skytalks - Saturday

13:00 Nickerson Doing a Dirty Harry Impersonation

Skytalks - Sunday

13:00 Eric Smith - Roaming...er, Roman Profiles

Tampa Bay Downs 13 March 2010

2010-03-13T06:48:00.007-06:00

Race 1 - 6 Personal Edge (7-2)

Result - 10-9-5
6 scratched

Race 2 - 2 Dynaquake (9-2) 3 Sir Classic Chris (5-1)

Result - 10-5-3-2

Race 3 - No Pick
Race 4 - 7 Scarlet and Gold (9-2)

Result - 10-11-7

Race 5 - No Pick
Race 6 - 2 Tabby Lane (9-2)

Result - 2-10-7. Returned 10.40 for 8.40 gain

Race 7 - 4 Secret Kin (8-1) 6 Dr. Zic (6-1)

Result - 6-8-1. Returned 7.20 for gain of 3.20.

Race 8 - 6 Liberally (12-1)

Result - 8-4-6

Race 9 - 4 Imaginary Saint (5-1)

Result - 6-2-7
Imaginary Saint brought up the rear

Race 10 - 4 Sneaking Uponyou (10-1)

Result - 4-6-7. Sneaking Uponyou paid $17, for a gain of $15.

Race 11 Tampa Derby - 7 Odysseus (7-2)

Result - 7-5-6. Odysseus paid $6, for a gain of $4.

Race 12 - 8 Stumbling Block (9-2) 9 Rey Del Sol (10-1)

Result - 2-6-5.

13 win bets in 10 races for $26. One scratch drops it down to $24 wagered, and 40.60 was paid out, for a gain of $16.60.

Tampa Bay Downs 7 March 2010

2010-03-07T09:48:00.007-06:00

Race 1 - 1 Free Candy (8-1), 7 Mardi's Magic (3-1) to win ($4)

Result - 7-4-3. Mardi's magic paid $5.60 for $1.60 gain

Race 2 - 5 Arts and Leisure (4-1), 9 Geodi's Gold to win (7-2) ($4)

Result 5-9-2. Arts and Leisure paid 8.20 for 4.20 gain

Race 3 - 10 El Legado (4-1) to win ($2)

Result - El Legado Scratched

Race 4 - 1 Mrs Lovett (6-1), 9 Nikki's Wanted Too (10-1) ($4)

Result - 7-10-3

Race 5 - 5 Robbie's Express (10-1) to win ($2)

Result - 9-3-2

Race 6 - No pick
Race 7 - 11 Fisherman's Wharf (4-1), 12 Big Al (5-1) to win ($4)

11 and 12 both scratched

Race 8 - 4 Security Breach (3-1) to win ($2)

Result - 4-6-2. Security Breach paid 7.60 for a 5.60 gain

Race 9 - 7 Beantown (12-1), 10 All the Bases (7-2) to win ($4)

Result - 10-2-8. All the bases paid 4.20 for a .20 gain

Race 10 - 8 Imperial River (7-2), 10 Bonnistar (5-1) to win ($4)

Result - 7-4-10

Race 11 - 4 Peteloveshisboots (7-2), 10 Snargle (3-1) to win ($4)

Result - 6-10-4

$34 in 17 win bets over 10 races.

Tampa Bay Downs 5 March 2010 - Post-mortem

2010-03-05T18:32:00.000-06:00

This was a much better day, although I completed missed a couple Pick-3s again. I'll probably stick to win bets exclusively from here on.

I picked winners in 9 races (placing 11 bets), and hit 3 of them. In race 6, my 2 picks came in 2nd and 4th. In race 8, my pick came in 2nd, and in race 10, my pick came in 3rd.

So, in 9 races, I had: 3 winners, 2 place and 1 show. 66% in the money is ok.

The bottom line is a 13.40 profit, which would have been 21.40 without those Pick-3s. It doesn't wipe out the terrible performance on the 3rd, but it comes close to balancing out. I have the form for the 7th. I hope I pick more like today than Wednesday.

Tampa Bay Downs 5 March 2010

2010-03-05T08:45:00.023-06:00

All win bets are $2. Pick 3 and Pick 4 are $1 bets.

Race 1 - 8 Ocala Cruz Missile (4/1)

Result - 3-4-9. Ocala Cruz Missile came in 6th, went off at 8-1

Race 2 - Pick 3 (1) (2,5) (1,8) $4 total

1 scratched. 1a heavy favorite.
Result - 2-1a-3

Race 3 - 2 Stack the Deck (9/2)

Result - 3-1-5. 2 led for 1/4 mile, and then completely tanked.

Race 4 - 8 Bankers High Yield (4/1)

Result - 8-3-7. Bankers High Yield went off 2/1, but a win is nice. Pays $6, gain of $4

Race 5 - 4 Lady Ballavale (9/2); Pick 3 (4) (6,8) (2,6) $4 total

Result - 8-2-1. Lady Ballavale wasn't even close.

Race 6 - 6 Stormy Ballad (15/1); 8 All the Figs Men (3/1)

Result - 3-8-7-6. 6 led early, 8 charged late.

Race 7 - 2 She'sfitfortaking (12/1); 6 Pat Pat (8/1)

6 scratched
Result - 2-10-4. 2 went off 11/1. Pays 24.80, gain of 22.80.

Race 8 - 5 Silver Prism (4/1)

Result - 3-5-2

Race 9 - 1 Game Ball (7/2)

Result - 1-9-7. 1 went off 3/1. Paid 8.60, gain of 6.60.

Race 10 - 8 Kathy's N Angel (5/1)

Result - 3-4-8

That's 11 win bets for $22. 2 Pick 3s for $8.

$30 in bets returned 43.40 for a 13.40 profit. I'm thinking that the Pick-3s are a less good idea, and may just sprinkle in some more win bets.

Tampa Bay Downs 3 March 2010 - Post mortem

2010-03-04T13:17:00.002-06:00

All the picks cost $60, and $32 of that was the Pick 6. Pick 6 may be the biggest return, but it requires a ton of money to fund, and so we probably won't be playing too many of those.

None of the picks hit, but that doesn't mean they were all bad. Of the 9 races where I picked a winner, 1 horse was scratched, 2 came in 2nd, 1 came in 3rd and 2 came in 4th. That's 3 horses in 8 races in the money, and 5 in a decent position at the finish (I think 4th is a decent position). I only hit 1 of 3 in both Pick 3s.

So far, down $58 on minimum bets (although it should have only been 26. Damned Pick 6 siren song).

Tampa Bay Downs 3 March 2010

2010-03-03T05:56:00.013-06:00

I'll update with results following the race, and with the cost of the P3 and P6 tickets. All win bets $2.

Race 1 - 5 Embark (3-1) to Win
- Result - Embark came in 7th
Race 2 - 5 Main Street Girl (9-2) to Win; (5,8) (5,7) (1) on the Pick 3 (2,3,4)
- Result - Main Street Girl came in 3rd. 3 won, the Pick 3 is done.
Race 3 - 7 Lite Brigade (4-1) to Win
- Result - Lite Brigade came in 4th, 5 came in 3rd
Race 4 - 11 Pyrite Smokin (12-1) to Win
- Result - Pyrite Smokin was scratched. 1 came in 1st.
- $2 Pick 3 (3-3-1) 3 Correct Paid $303.80
Race 5 - 10 Tahoe Lake (15-1) to Win
- Result - Tahoe Lake took 2nd. 6 came in 4th (busted pick 6)
Race 6 - (3,5) (4,7) (4) on the Pick 3
- Result - 5 wins, 3 comes in 6th.
Race 7 - 7 Will Prevail (6-1) to Win
- Result - Will prevail comes in 4th. 8-6-5.
Race 8 - 4 Little Schnuck (7-2) to Win
- Result - Little Schnuck comes in 2nd. 7-4-3
Race 9 - 5 Anachini (7-2) and 9 Implicate (15-1) to Win
- Result - Anachini and Implicate came in 6 & 8. 1-2-4
Race 10 - 1 Merrymonthofmay (12-1) to win
- Result - Merrymonthofmay came in 6th. 4-9-5

Race 2 Pick 3

2 x 2 x 1 x $1 = $4

Race 6 Pick 3

2 x 2 x 1 x $1 = $4

Race 5 Pick 6

6,10
3,5
4,7
4
5,9
1

2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $32

Upgrade to Snort 2.8.4

2009-04-08T11:31:00.004-05:00

Sourcefire has changed the dcerpc preprocessor in Snort, so you have to upgrade to 2.8.4 if you want netbios rules to continue to work. This is the procedure I followed to upgrade my snort boxes.

Get Snort 2.8.4

# wget http://www.snort.org/dl/snort-2.8.4.tar.gz

Build and install snort


# tar zxvf snort-2.8.4.tar.gz
# cd snort-2.8.4
# ./configure --with-mysql --enable-dynamicplugin
# make
# service snort stop
# make install

Replace old netbios rules


# wget http://www.snort.org/vrt/tools/dcerpc2-snort-2.8.4-RC-1.rules
# cp /etc/snort/rules/netbios.rules /etc/snort/rules/netbios.rules.old
# cp dcerpc2-snort-2.8.4-RC-1.rules /etc/snort/rules/netbios.rules

Disable old dcerpc processor:

In snort.conf:


#preprocessor dcerpc: \
#    autodetect \
#    max_frag_size 3000 \
#    memcap 100000

Enable new dcerpc processor

In snort.conf:


preprocessor dcerpc2
preprocessor dcerpc2_server: default

Adding a snort_archive Database to an Existing Snort/BASE Installation

2009-04-05T09:53:00.003-05:00

1. Create snort_archive database and assign permissions to snort user


$ mysql -u root -p
mysql> create database snort_archive;
mysql> grant CREATE,INSERT,SELECT,DELETE,UPDATE on snort_archive.* to snort@localhost;
mysql> grant CREATE,INSERT,SELECT,DELETE,UPDATE on snort_archive.* to snort;
mysql> exit

2. Set up tables using schema from snort


$ cd $SNORT_SOURCE_DIRECTORY/schemas
$ mysql -u root -p < create_mysql snort_archive

3. Export existing snort database


$ mysqldump -p snort > snort-backup.sql

4. Import snort database into snort_archive


$ mysql -p snort_archive < snort-backup.sql

5. Modify base_conf.php to enable archive database


archive_exists   = 1; # Set this to 1 if you have an archive DB
$archive_dbname   = 'snort_archive';
$archive_host     = 'localhost';
$archive_port     = '';
$archive_user     = 'snort';
$archive_password = '$PASSWORD';

6. At BASE home page, select link "Use archive database"
7. Select Total alerts link (the number of total alerts)
8. Select Delete alerts for entire query

Tampa Bay Downs March 29, 2009

2009-03-29T08:23:00.002-05:00

Race 1 - 3 Pure Miracle (5/1)
Race 2 - Pick 3 4-1-6
Race 3 - 2 Reason to Rejoice (5/1)
Race 4 - 6 Sister Suave (10/1)
Race 5 - No Pick
Race 6 - 5 St. Blaine's Quill (8/1), Pick 6 5-2-1-5-7-3
Race 7 - No Pick
Race 8 - No Pick
Race 9 - No Pick
Race 10 - 7 Montalcino (9/2)
Race 11 - No Pick

Tampa Bay Downs March 18, 2009

2009-03-17T20:54:00.002-05:00

Race 1 - 4 Lonesome Flame (8/1)
Race 2 - 5 Invisible Cove (5/1)
Race 3 - 7 Mythical Hunter (6/1)
Race 4 - 2 Braggadocio (5/1)
Race 5 - No pick
Race 6 - 5 Skyblue Cowgirl (9/2) 9 Elegant Ely (6/1)
Race 7 - 3 Tobin's Rules (8/1)
Race 8 - 3 Pyrite Gem (5/1)
Race 9 - 1 Sensational View (6/1)
Race 10 - 2 Call on Joshua (4/1) 12 Indigenous Ruler (6/1)

Tampa Bay Downs March 17, 2009

2009-03-17T05:00:00.003-05:00

Race 1 - 12 Highlite Girl (3/1), 1 Ella Bee (12/1)
Race 2 - 6 Poundcake (4/1)
Race 3 - No pick
Race 4 - 9 Lotta T L C (10/1), 3 Miss Approval (4/1)
Race 5 - 5 Sealed Bid (3/1), Pick 6 5,4,1,6,4,6
Race 6 - No Pick
Race 7 - 1 Groovy Kid (9/2), 6 Ron's Perennial (3/1), 4 Strike It Ritz (7/2)
~~Race 8 - 6 Conchacer (5/2)~~
Race 9 - No pick
Race 10 - 1 Mambo Appeal (5/1), 6 Mock Me Not (3/1)

Update: Eliminated race 8. I try not to pick any horse that will go under 3/1.

OpenBSD IPSEC Config

2009-01-14T12:03:00.001-06:00

This is from notes I had jotted down for IPSEC lan-to-lan config with OpenBSD 3.9. It's mostly the same process now.


OpenBSD 3.9 IPSEC Config

Machine A  Machine B
---------  ----------
IP 1.2.3.4  5.6.7.8
Network 10.1.1.0/24 10.2.2.0/24

pf.conf (non-NAT)
 ext_if = "fxp1"
 int_if = "fxp0"
 set skip on { lo $int_if enc0 }
 scrub in
 block in
 pass quick on $ext_if from 5.6.7.8  (1.2.3.4 on machine B)
 pass out keep state
 pass in on $ext_if proto tcp to ($ext_if) port ssh keep state

Machine A ipsec.conf
 ike passive esp from 10.1.1.0/24 to 10.2.2.0/24 peer 5.6.7.8
 ike passive esp from 1.2.3.4 to 10.2.2.0/24 peer 5.6.7.8
 ike passive esp from 1.2.3.4 to 5.6.7.8

Machine B ipsec.conf
 ike esp from 10.2.2.0/24 to 10.1.1.0/24 peer 1.2.3.4
 ike esp from 5.6.7.8 to 10.1.1.0/24 peer 1.2.3.4
 ike esp from 5.6.7.8 to 1.2.3.4

Copy keys:

Machine A: copy from firewall B /etc/isakmpd/local.pub to
  /etc/isakmpd/pubkeys/ipv4/5.6.7.8
Machine B: copy from firewall A /etc/isakmpd/local.pub to
  /etc/isakmpd/pubkeys/ipv4/1.2.3.4

Start IPSEC:
 isakmpd -K
 ipsecctl -f /etc/ipsec.conf

enable IP forwarding in /etc/sysctl.conf:
 net.inet.ip.forwarding = 1

This new Black Hat meme

2008-08-03T20:48:00.003-05:00

I notice that a lot of people are posting their schedule of Black Hat talks, which I don't remember happening in years past. I think it's actually pretty cool, because frequently the really good talks go unnoticed due to a bad title, or just the obscurity of the topic. So, I figured I'd share my planned Black Hat schedule with my ones of readers, in case it highlights a good talk that you would not have otherwise taken in.

Wednesday

10:00 - 11:00 Fyodor - Nmap: Scanning the Internet
11:15 - 12:30 Nate Lawson - Highway to Hell: Hacking Toll Systems
13:45 - 15:00 Joe Stewart - Protocols and Encryption of the Storm Botnet
15:15 - 16:30 Bruce Potter - Malware Detection through Flow Analysis
16:45 - 18:00 Ty Miller - Reverse DNS Tunneling Shellcode
18:00 Hacker Court

Thursday

10:00 - 11:00 FX - Developments in Cisco IOS Forensics
13:45 - 15:00 Lukas Grunwald - Hacking and Injecting Federal Trojans
15:15 - 16:30 Sotirov & Dowd - How to Impress Girls with Browser Memory Protection Bypasses

Love (and Credit Monitoring) Don't Cost a Thing

2008-07-13T07:20:00.003-05:00

Either I've been living under a rock, or credit monitoring and protection services have really amped up the marketing. The other night, some credit monitoring service had a commercial on every time Casino was interrupted by a break, and then I saw that last night's NASCAR race was the Lifelock 500. I have a sneaking suspicion that people must be paying for these services.

If you gain extra piece of mind from paying a credit bureau a monthly fee to protect the data they've aggregated about you, then this post isn't going to help you much. I'd just like to outline how I monitor my credit by taking advantage of the Fair and Accurate Credit Transaction Act of 2003 (FACTA).

The main thing to remember is that the law gave consumers one free credit report from each credit bureau per year. The offical site is www.annualcreditreport.com. When you access a credit report via this site, the credit bureau will offer credit score monitoring and a bunch of other crap for a fee. You can decline it all, but definitely admire the credit bureaus for making lemonade out of those lemons. Read their Frequently Asked Questions to understand the options available to you.

Since the credit bureaus tend to have overlapping information, I check a different one every four months. As far as I'm concerned, that's a good enough interval to find out if inaccurate information has been reported, or if someone is attempting to open account with my information. I can't stress enough that the credit bureaus have very little interest in verifying the information reported for legitimate accounts, so make sure your banks and credit cards aren't reporting incorrect information, too.

The other facility that FACTA provides is the ability to place a Fraud Alert on your account, which tells a potential lender that it needs to positively identify anyone trying to open an account with your information (not surprisingly, a few lenders still don't bother to verify the information), because you may be a victim of identity theft. Fraud alerts are good for 3 months. Companies like Lifelock use this provision to provide their services. Instead of having to remember to renew your fraud alert every three months, Lifelock does it for you. The credit bureaus hate that, and claim that the fraud alert is only supposed to be used when there is a good chance your identity is at risk. Well, given the shoddy state of data security, and the absolute disinterest by the credit bureaus in protecting your information, a case can be made that everyone's identity is always at risk. I invite you to check out the Attrition Dataloss web site I just linked, they basically scour the news to provide a centralized listing of all the data breaches reported, and it will leave you more than a little disappointed in the state of data security.

So, those are the freely available methods to monitor and protect your identity, and the credit bureaus add little to them. For the most part, they will sell you arbitrary access to the reports at any time, credit score information and alerting. Of these, alerting is the only service of value. If you can get a free report once per year from each bureau, then why worry about anything except changes?

Enter the great state of California. It turns out that some governments will actually take steps to protect their citizens. In this case, California passed a law a couple years ago that required any business with customers in California to notify those customers when a data breach involving customer data is discovered. Until that law passed, companies tended to sweep it under the rug when a box of backup tapes fell off a truck, a laptop was stolen a database was hacked. More states are following suit, but it goes to show that until someone holds corporations accountable, they will not do the "right" thing (if they're publicly held, they could be sued for actions not required by law that affect shareholder value). Feel free to support politicians that support laws that help people in their daily lives (as opposed to renaming french fries to freedom fries, for example). Sorry, got a little carried away there. Where were we?

Now, we get letters when it data breaches happen, and in order to cover their butts, these businesses have adopted the standard practice of providing free credit monitoring to anyone that could be affected by a data breach. I just enrolled my wife and I in 24 months of free alerting because Mellon Bank lost a bunch of backup tapes that contained my identifying information, including Social Security number. Even though the bureaus try to sell add-ons to these offers as well, these are paid-for services on the part of the company reporting a breach, and so there's absolutely no good reason to not take advantage of the service when offered. Don't pay for it, though. The "good news" is, some company with your identity information will lose it soon, and offer to pick up the tab.

Viewing Multiple Capture Files With tcpdump

2008-03-01T07:00:00.002-06:00

In the course of some troubleshooting yesterday, I had to capture some packets on our external Internet interface. In order to keep the files manageable, I set up wireshark to use 10 megabyte files. That wasn't the best idea, since it resulted in a new file every 8-10 seconds, and overwhelmed this little Thinkpad I use. Oh, well.

In the end, one of the things I wanted to see is how many ICMP unreachable messages were sent by the firewall in that time frame. I have 530 10 megabyte files from the capture, and I really didn't want to open every one in wireshark and then scroll down the packet list, or even filter for unreachables. I tried a couple of command-line options with tcpdump, using xargs and bash scripts, but these options were either too complicated for regular use, or just didn't work.

In the end, I stumbled on mergecap, a command-line utility included with wireshark. Its intended purpose is to, surprise, merge a bunch of capture files, but I didn't want a 530 megabyte capture file to then work with, either. It turns out that you can use stdin and stdout to have mergecap output to stdout, and have tcpdump grab it for immediate display.

In the end, I came up with:

 mergecap -w - capfile* | tcpdump -n -tttt -r - | grep -i unreachable

That's quick and easy enough to use all the time.

AT&T Wireless Broadband on Ubuntu Linux

2008-02-22T16:39:00.004-06:00

The Option GT Max 3.6 Express is supported under Ubuntu 7.10. When you insert the card, it should appear as /dev/ttyUSB0, /dev/ttyUSB1, and /dev/ttyUSB2. It functions as a regular modem, so pick one of the devices and see if it works. If not, move on until one of them actually dials out.

The login information for the AT&T wireless connection is:

Phone number: *99***1#
Username: ISP@CINGULARGPRS.COM
Password: CINGULAR1

UPDATE: As of xubuntu 9.04, there's a fancy graphical interface that pops up to help you set up your card. It sets up the AT&T card with a username of WAP@CINGULARPRS.COM and an APN of WAP.CINGULAR. These needed to be changed to ISP@CINGULARGPRS and ISP.CINGULAR for my card to work. The number they use is *99#, which works fine.

OpenBSD + Squid + pf Transparent www Proxy Firewall

2008-02-21T16:12:00.000-06:00

There is a perfectly serviceable squid package in the OpenBSD ports collection. I have found that I sometimes require a newer version of squid, or that I'm running an older version of OpenBSD, and the newer squid ports are not available. Also, the port doesn't offer a straightforward method to compile squid with more than 1024 file descriptors, which you will need on a moderately busy proxy.

This is the process for setting up squid from the source tarball.


o Compile kernel with
  option MAXFILES=8192

o Edit /etc/sysctl.conf
  kern.maxfiles=8192

o Download squid, extract the file and run configure as root.  Set ulimit -n 8192 before running
 configure or it will use the default 1024.
  # ulimit -n 8192
  # ./configure --sysconfdir="/etc"
       --prefix="/usr/local/squid"
       --datadir="/usr/local/share/squid"
       --enable-removal-policies="lru heap"
       --enable-ssl
       --enable-pf-transparent

o Add a rule to /etc/pf.conf to redirect all port 80 traffic to squid
  rdr on $int_if inet proto tcp from any to any \ 
    port www -> 127.0.0.1 port 2005

o Create the new user & group (use vipw to add the user, any editor to modify /etc/group)
  vipw:
   _squid:*:515:515:daemon:0:0:Squid Account:/nonexistent:/sbin/nologin
  /etc/group:
   _squid:*:515

o Allow the _squid group access to /dev/pf
  chgrp _squid /dev/pf
  chmod g+rw /dev/pf

o In squid 2.6 and above, a single line enables the transparent proxy
  http_port 2005 transparent

o /var/squid partitions, in /etc/fstab
   mount options:
   noatime, nodev, nosuid, softdep

o rc.local
  ulimit -n 8192
  /usr/local/squid/sbin/squid

o rc.shutdown
  /usr/local/squid/sbin/squid -k shutdown

D-E-D, Dead

2008-02-12T12:25:00.000-06:00

How's that online gambling ban working out? A look around the poker blogosphere indicates that people are playing it up at Full Tilt and PokerStars, and it looks like plenty of people are playing online when I launch a client. People must have found a decent way to fund their accounts after all.

Yesterday, I got a hankering to play a little online poker and so I installed the latest PokerStars client. It runs using WINE in Linux, so that's a bonus (for people that care about such things. Probably no one reading this. Sorry). I clicked into the funding options and saw that Visa/Mastercard was listed. Yeah, right. My card (Chase Visa) was declined for online gaming *before* Frist's sneak attack. That reminds me--has anyone seen Bill Frist lately? It does my hard good to see that pandering douchebags sometimes get what's coming to them.

So, anyway, funding options. Cashier's check or money order sounds like a lot of work. If I wanted to work, I wouldn't be looking to gamble online. So, ePassporte seemed to be the best option. From an end-user perspective, it looked mostly like Neteller, so I figured I'd give it a shot. I went through the sign-up process, and then hit the point where I had to verify that I was the cardholder by calling my credit card company and verifying the amount of a small pre-authorization charge. Are they high? Did they not notice what I just said about work?

Fuck it, I don't want to gamble that badly. There's a poker room at the local Native American Gaming Entertainment Hall, and I could always go there for a game. It turned out that ePassporte was going to get another chance, though. The pre-authorizations from ePassporte for the tiny amount, and for the larger amount I intended to transfer, triggered the anti-fraud mechanisms at Chase, and I got a call to verify the charges.

"Yep, I recognize that charge," I told the helpful gentleman on the phone. "Is there another charge in there from them? A smaller one?"

He told me that there was, and the amount. Well, this was a lot less work again, so I logged back into my ePassporte account and verified the account. I was then taken to a Verified by Visa authorization site (what. the. fuck. How many times do I have to authorize this charge?), and created a password to use. Enter password, continue on, enter deposit amount (AGAIN). Transaction is progress......Declined. That's a joke, right? Nope, Chase actually declined the charged after my many interventions to specifically allow it.

That's all she wrote for ePassporte. I'm not going to go through all that hassle for each of my credit cards until I get lucky enough for one to go through. If my experience is at all representative, online poker in the US is dead. It just seems unlikely that the masses are going to jump through all these hoops in order to play poker online. Chalk up a victory for the Nanny State.

Chalk up a victory for the horse racing lobby as well. It's still perfectly legal to bet on horses, and it's sure as hell a lot easier to deposit money with an online horse racing service (again, for the non-Windows support. Die Windows-only products).

I may or may not begin blogging regularly, but the poker content will certainly be thin. Which may not be a bad thing. My brief survey of poker blogs shows that the same bad-beat posts continue to well up*. There's no need for me to contribute more of those.

* Except, of course, for Pauly. His writing about Vegas always makes me want to jump on the next plane out.

Bad timing

2007-03-04T18:52:00.000-06:00

I haven't played any poker in a while, so I went onto Full Tilt earlier today to work my game back into shape. For some reason, I thought a 6-max NL game would be the right venue for this, maybe because of the increased action? Good thinking, there. After a couple of hours and $175, Full Tilt went offline, and it looks like they're still offline.

Why couldn't that have happened during the brief window when I was up $4?

Groundhog Day

2007-03-03T13:41:00.000-06:00

Huh.

So everyone's a criminal now.

I'm sure everyone goes through highs and lows in their work, and that most people encounter projects that seem straightforward, but somehow turn into extended engagements. And then three or four of them go on at once. Well, maybe most people don't have jobs like that, but I'm sure I'm not alone. Throw in some priority time for Mrs. Jackmama and the toddlers (soon-to-be 3 and just-turned-1), and there just isn't much time left for blogging. And the criminality of it all.

I have been woefully out of touch with the bloggers in my blogroll, and so I find myself playing some catchup today. I see that Iggy moved back to his old haunts, and that Pauly is now including a little legalese at the bottom of every post, due to some sort of content thief. BG appears to have little playing for playing the horses, or at least to blog about them.

Oh, it's the dog days of winter, all right. Or the summer of our discontent. That's right, since poker is now illegal, I'm changing the content of this blog to malapropisms.

Much like the groundhog, I appear for a specific reason. If the dust is being knocked off the blog, it means I must be headed to Las Vegas (because it's legal to transfer money to a casino to play poker!). I'll be flying the friendly skies on March 14, in order to enjoy a full four days of the first round of March Madness. Ah, sweet, sweet gambling.

I may or may not continue to post updates. I have promised in the past to continue, and then fallen off the wagon. I have been comforted by the knowledge that very few people actually read this blog, and of those that do, most consider it a clever semi-bluff when I promise continue. We'll see.

More Time for Mickey Mouse Clubhouse

2006-10-10T12:08:00.000-05:00

When ESPN booted Sterling Sharpe from their Sunday NFL Countdown show, I was skeptical. When they inserted Michael Irvin in his place, I continued to be skeptical. Over the course of his first year, he gradually won me over as a likable goofball surrounded by stuffed shirts (NFL commentators, especially ex-players, take themselves far too seriously. Steve Young behaves like he's the head of a children's ICU or something). Michael Irvin never had much to say, and basically sat around and poked fun at everyone on the set.

Then, T.O. needed a friend in the media, and Michael Irvin became that friend. Ever since Terrell Owens started causing trouble in Eagles training camp last year, Michael Irvin has become a one-trick pony. Who's the best team in the NFL? The Cowboys. Why? Because T.O. is someday going to come out and be the great receiver he is, and lift the team to new heights. Never mind that Terry Glenn has been doing that for them already -- it has to be T.O. Also never mind that the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers all have a stronger claim on the title ( Note: The Author is strongly biased toward the Monsters of the Midway. It doesn't invalidate The Author's point (Note: I shall henceforth be known as The Author. Update your bookmarks accordingly)).

What do the Bears, Eagles, Patriots, Broncos and Chargers all have in common? None of them have a standout wide receiver. Somehow, Michael Irvin has it in his head that championship teams require superstar wide receivers. Well, duh. He was a wide receiver, and ever since someone came up with the catchy sobriquet of "The Triplets" to describe he, Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin believes that any championship team requires a top quarterback, running back and wide receiver. That point could be made, I guess, but Michael Irvin is not the one to make it. Now that he actually believes in something, and tries to make points, he has become an embarrassment to ESPN. Imagine that--a company that employs Chris Berman and Stuart Scott managed to find someone even more annoying and incomprehensible to add into the mix. ESPN never had a great Sunday morning show, but it managed to get through the morning without the frat house idiocy of Fox's show, or the faux-gravitas of Boomer Esiason on CBS. Now, I suppose I'll have to abandon the shows entirely, because segments made up of Mike Ditka and Michael Irvin shouting over the top of each other do not make for good television.

Why hasn't the NFL Network launched a Sunday morning show? I have a feeling that Rich Eisen would do an outstanding job.

Housekeeping

2006-10-05T11:35:00.000-05:00

Wow. There are a lot of angry people out there. I have to nominate BG as my hero of the day, though. If you can get worked into a frenzy over an online gaming ban, after sleepwalking through a host of other outrages committed by the American government, then you may need to take a deep breath and try to consider if maybe you do have a gambling problem. The Republican Party is really testing the limits of what a culture focused on American Idol and Grey's Anatomy will accept before waking up and questioning authority. People can only be gullible about security for a limited time, right? Right?

You can't be the wind beneath my wings for just one good post, though. After reading BG's poker blog commentary, I decided to clean up the blog a little bit. Most of the people linked to the right drift away from poker content much of the time, and that's what keeps me reading. A couple of blogs had to be dropped from the list, simply because they tended toward hand history/game recap posts. There's nothing wrong with those, but I don't have a whole lot of interest in them any more. I considered moving my blog to something without "poker" in the time, but, ah, fuck it. Anyone that actually reads this blog can't be that finicky about what they're reading, or if it stays on topic.

So, let's see. Online horse racing is still legal. Youbet is probably the most mature and best service, unless you use a mac and want streaming video. Still, since I can get TVG on Directv, I guess streaming video isn't that big a deal.

I'm headed back out to Vegas in December. That will be my 4th trip in a year, which is definitely a new record for me. I toyed with the idea of staying somewhere cheap, but I couldn't do it. Mrs. Jackmama and I will be enjoying 3 nights at the Bellagio. I think it'll be at the tail-end of the Five Diamond Poker Classic, so maybe we'll see some lively poker action.

Government actions to legislate morality are bad. Make no mistake. I see a silver lining in this online gaming ban, though. I've drifted away from online poker and poker discussion sites in the last several months because it got to where I saw many people playing a different game. Multi-tabling and poker-tracker and all the other technology-dependent strategies toward winning in online poker just seem like work to me. I've always had a soft spot for the game of poker where 9 or 10 people sit down and play the game. So, for me, the loss on online poker is not a loss at all, since I had drifted away from that culture already.

You know what is a loss to me? Online sports betting. Fuck you, Frist and all your nanny-government cohorts.

Tidbits

2006-07-06T08:51:00.000-05:00

In honor of the World Series of Poker, I present this inspirational message.

Make sure that you're reading Pauly and Otis for all the important WSOP news. If it's not covered by them, it's not important. Hint: Pauly and Otis are the guys linked prominently on the right, with pretty logos. It took a long time to get the layout right, so click on them to show some appreciation for my HTMLabors.

I imagine bloggers are now trickling into Vegas for the WPBT weekend. Have fun, you bastards.

It Ain't Me, Babe

2006-06-28T10:28:00.000-05:00

I am, quite possibly, the worst chess player on the face of the Earth. I've certainly never played against a worse player. I'm so bad that I actually revel in my ineptitude, taunting opponents when they fail to take me out right away, and hooting over my rare victories. Something about the game just doesn't mesh for me; I think it's because chess relies on both strategy and tactics. I can handle tactics. Making moves to accomplish some short-term goal, whether it's taking a rook or getting my king out of trouble, is not a problem. It's putting all these tactical encounters to work within a coherent strategy that causes me trouble. I'll take the time to get some pieces into a nice defensive position, move some others into attacking position, and then move one of the defenders because there is a tactical advantage. Of course, short-term tactical advantage costs me the long-term strategic advantage, and my crippled defense gives up an important piece. I don't know if that says anything about me as a poker player. Maybe. I guess I'll consider myself lucky that poker is more a tactical game--the next hand has no bearing on this one.

Mrs. Jackmama put a beatdown on me in the first game of chess we played last night, and then didn't care to play the second game and so I ended up winning. Very unsatisfying, to win because the opponent didn't care to play. I decided to play a little .25/.50 NL on Full Tilt, because even at small stakes the opponents are interested in playing.

It's tough to get a read on the table online. Since so many avatars are the same, it's hard to notice when someone is replaced at the table, and due to the high turnover of players, it would be hard to track them, anyway. Usually, one or two tend to stay at the table for the length of time that I am there, and I get a decent read on them. Otherwise, I apply the generic read "Internet player" to all the others. It's not terribly accurate, but it's better than nothing.

After a couple hours of hanging around the breakeven point, I found myself down about $10 of my $50 buy-in, primarily due to some aggressive betting. The table had several family pots in a row, and I was coming into pots with big raises when I had cards, trying to shake people out of their comfort zones. A few flops missed me, and I found myself a little lighter for it. In the big blind, I suddenly found myself with the Hammer (2d7c). UTG+1, the button, and the small blind all call. I'd been pretty aggressive in my betting lately, and so I simply check to see the flop.

Flop comes out 2s Ac 7d. Now that's a fine how-d'ya-do. The only player I have a read on is the button, who likes to see a lot of flops, but folds in the face of aggressive betting when he has nothing. The other two players are generic "Internet player." I figure that player to call the blinds with A-anything, middle suited connectors, a couple of face cards, and maybe low pairs. Since I'm facing a pair of aces, I figure I'll chase out some draws, and get a feel for where I am with a half-pot-sized bet of $2. UTG+1 calls, the button and small blind fold.

The turn is 4s. I figure this guy has an ace. I aim to draw some money into the pot with a $4 bet, and hope he doesn't hit his 3 on the river. He raises to $15. I guess he wants me to know that he has something. The odds of pocket 2s or 7s are somewhat low, since I have a couple of them, and it would be risky to call $2 on the flop with a pair of 4s, so I have to believe he has the ace, and he thinks the ace is a winner, probably because of a higher kicker. He must think I have an ace, too, right? Given the likelihood that I have the best hand, and his apparent belief that he has me whupped, I re-raise all-in to 38.75. He calls, and shows 4h Ah. Ouch.

I console myself with the knowledge that I had him read correctly, as a generic "Internet player," and that it's just bad luck that the rag part of A-rag happened to come on the turn. That'll happen, I suppose.

The river comes 7h. Oops, I just caught a full house on the river. Someone's crying about a bad beat tonight, but it ain't me, babe.

Viva Tao Poker

2006-06-27T09:29:00.000-05:00

Pauly gets this party started right. In my brief exile, I missed the news about media restrictions at the WSOP, specifically that Pauly will not be allowed to provide updated chipcounts and winners' photos. Certain larger media organizations (undoubtedly rhyming with PardFlayer, though I haven't done any research into it. If I did research, the Internet Police would revoke my blogging license) have claimed exclusive rights to ditribute that info. What a crock of shit. Fortunately, I never read Pauly for that information, although I didn't object to its presence. No, I love the Tao of Poker because he provides a window into the experience of being in Las Vegas during the WSOP. If he simply wrote about cash games and ignored the WSOP, I'd still be hitting his site every day.

Welcome Back

2006-06-26T15:25:00.000-05:00

If it weren't for the dates on the posts, this page would always look like it had just been updated. The unspoken beauty of the Intarweb is that the thing never ages, pages just go 404.

Following two trips to Vegas in quick succession, I just never got back in the online poker groove. For a while before that, I had lost interest in tourney poker, and the weak hold of ring games was never re-established. In retrospect, I probably should have taken the opportunity to become a regular at the local bingo hal...er, Indian casino, but time just slipped by. With April comes baseball season, and with May comes summertime. In the absence of a full-on poker obsession, there is little incentive to play.

I jumped onto Full Tilt this weekend to play, and wandered into a $10+1 SNG. I figured it would be fun to get back into the swing of things with a tourney, in honor of the beginning of the WSOP this week. I played tight for a short while and woke up with QQ on the button. Blinds were at 25/50 and 4 or 5 people called ahead of me. Time to thin the field, so I raise to 200. UTG calls and a middle position player calls, and everyone else drops. Nice.

Flop comes rags, with two clubs and a 9 as the highest card. I figure the likely hands that beat me are slow-played AA or KK, and maybe 99. I fire out 500 at the 800 pot, UTG re-raises a negligible amount all-in, mid-position folds, and I call the couple hundred re-raise. UTG shows 84c, proceeds to hit his flush and leave me crippled. My desperation push a couple hands later goes nowhere, and I go out first.

I guess that's how poker treats you when you return. It stores up all the bad beats you would have gotten and delivers them in one majestic blow.

[UPDATE: I realize that the numbers don't add up. Yeah, my memory sucks. It's basically what happened, though. Big raise pre-flop, not quite pot-size bet.]

Trainwreck

2006-03-20T09:52:00.000-06:00

At my first table, I was seated between JoeSpeaker and BadBlood. Even when you consider that the average skill level of the people in this tourney was unusually high, this was still a terrible draw. Does it matter which one was on my left? As it happens, it was BadBlood.

From BadBlood's recap: "During the first hour or so at my first table, I was fortunate enough to have that poker experience that can only be described as great timing. The combination of good cards against ones that are slightly worse and aggressive play against hands that had missed the flop let me take an early chip lead. Because I was showing down the hands that had hit, my table image was that of a card rack. This was true, but not as much as the table believed."

It seemed to me that BadBlood was all over every move I made, and it looks like he thought so, too. From my notes, which are brief due to a lack of notable play on my part: "Every time I have a decent pre-flop hand and bet out, BadBlood44 is there, and when the flop misses me he is able to turn the screws, having amassed a huge stack by the first break. 58 remaining out of 69 and I'm getting into push mode."

And there you have it. I could have played much better, but after missing a couple of flops and having BadBlood punish me, I got gunshy, and that's no way to play poker. In the end, I pushed with KJ and was knocked out by Derek's AK. Congratulations to Gracie, who took down the grand prize.

Indomitable

2006-03-19T07:24:00.002-06:00

Willpower of forged steel. When I decide something, that's that. When I finally decided to quit smoking, I quit smoking. When I finally decided to stop biting my fingernails, I stopped biting my fingernails. When I decided to centralize my poker play one one site, I lasted almost an entire week before opening another online poker account. Oops.

I am enrolled in the WPBT WSOP Satellite organized by Iggy. We need 55 players to make it happen, so sign up if you haven't. The only requirement is that you're a blogger, and the definition of "blogger" is likely to be pretty loose.

WPBT WSOP Satellite Tournament
March 19th - Sunday
9pm EST
Paradise Poker
$30 NL
Email allimcbeal_69 - yahoo dot com for the password

Odds & Ends

2006-03-14T14:20:00.000-06:00

I had a great time in Vegas, and made back almost the entire cost of the trip. If I hadn't donked away $160 playing the horses on Saturday, I would have been close to dead even. Most of the time was spent wiling away the hours in the poker room at Caesar's Palace, which has bumped Bellagio as my favorite room. There was also a night of casino-hopping for craps and blackjack, and we hit enough hot tables to provide a nice return, although the bulk of my winnings came from the 1/2 NL game at Caesar's.

I was hoping to try and win a World Series entry at Full Tilt. However, I took a look at their info page, and they're only giving away Main Event seats. Unfortunately for me, I'll be traveling during that week, and couldn't play the Main Event even if I won a seat. I'm not playing any other sites, either. Trying to keep money in a bunch of online sites in order to play various WPBT tourneys or WSOP satellites is ridiculous. I made the decision to concentrate my play on one site, and since Poker Stars continues to ignore Mac users, Full Tilt won by default.

Did I mention that I donked away $160 playing the horses on Saturday? I can't remember the last time I picked a winner, and it's eating away at me. I think I'll have to step away from the ponies for a while, as they are very unprofitable. I'll fill the void with more poker, and may even venture down to the local bingo hall for some live 3/5 NL. I think I convinced myself with this last trip to Vegas that I can play well enough to win consistently in a live game, and it's time to find out.

This has been a lot of rambling, but I needed to let some air out. When you haven't written for a while, the pressure builds up slowly and you feel more and more like you need to break the silence with something momentous, and the more the pressure builds, the less you feel up to the task. I'm hoping this random spewing relieves the pressure enough that I can tell some of the notable stories from this trip.

Back to Happyland

2006-03-02T17:05:00.000-06:00

Is anyone still out there?

There are only so many hours in the day. As I've mentioned before, I'm married to a wonderful and patient lady, and we have two children. Our son is going to be 2 years old next week, and our daughter will hit 4 months in a couple weeks. I think it's safe to speak for all parents when I say that the amount of time and work involved in raising children does not double with the second one...it's an exponential increase. Fortunately for me, our kids are happy, healthy and well-behaved, so we have it easier than some.

The time for poker and horse racing is severely limited, and so there are long stretches (like the last couple weeks) where there have been no blog updates. This has been a shared function of not much to write, and nothing to write about. I'm pretty sure I left 9 racing forms on the table last month because I didn't find any time to handicap races. BG has been going crazy at the track, and even spun off a dedicated horse racing blog. I hope to pick up some more knowledge from him, and soon. My picks the last few times out have been horrendous.

I played a live tournament last weekend at the home of a co-worker. Out of 26 people, I finished 11th, which made me bubble boy for the final table. I played a tight-aggressive game, and the blinds were starting to wear me down when I found pocket jacks. It folded around to the big stack on my right, appropriately nicknamed "the Enforcer." He called with 7s and hit another one on the turn to knock me out. I played well and had a good time, and managed to earn back $40 in a cash game to follow, so I'm not bitter about the $60 I left there. Many of the players are involved in a weekly tournament, and most of them that I played against were pretty good, so I feel pretty good about my live game. One of the nice things about poker is that the more you play, the better you get, but once you reach a certain level of competency you can at least make a good showing for yourself during long stretches of not playing.

And I'm going to need a good showing. Many of the players from last weekend are Vegas-bound and have been needling Troy to go along. Have I ever mentioned that Troy is my boss, as well as a good friend? Anyway, he was feeling the temptation today, and leaned on me a little bit. I know that it's not at all the role of the responsible husband and father to jet off to Vegas at the least suggestion, and so I called my Dear and Patient Wife to hear how it just wouldn't be feasible. Dear and Patient Wife said, "Make it happen." I am the luckiest man in the world.

So, I'm returning to the Happiest Place on Earth for a return engagement next Wednesday through Saturday. The crappy flight (Milwaukee to Houston to Vegas) is compensated for by the nice suite at THEHotel at Mandalay Bay. All for $600. That's pretty sweet, considering it's NCAA Tournament and NASCAR week. I fully intend to spend all of my gambling time at the poker table and sports book, and avoid the severely -EV games that killed me last time.

With any luck, I'll be updating the blog more regularly. Thanks to anyone that's still hanging around and reading.

Tampa Bay Downs 2-9-06

2006-02-09T09:51:00.000-06:00

Race 1 - 1 Keystone Point (8-1) 4 Cullen (4-1) 7 Kid Quixote (9-2)
Race 2 - 1 Right Mix (9-2) 5 Super Woman (3-1) 7 Morning Beauty (4-1)
Race 3 - 6 Bully for Rush (5-2) 11 W.R. Aire (8-1)
Race 4 - No Pick
Race 5 - 1 Howdy Pardner (8-1) 6 Americanism (10-1) 8 Harborage (7-5)
Race 6 - 3 Mr. Hogan (7-2) 4 Matchless Ability (9-2) 5 Thisoneforroger(5-2)
Race 7 - 1 Vaillante (6-1)

I think my bet for BG is going to be on 11 in the 3rd race. Otherwise, I'll be taking whichever of my picks goes off at the longest odds. Unless 8 Harborage in the 5th race eases back to 2-1...that one looks too strong.

The One With the Stuff and Some Other Stuff

2006-02-08T16:05:00.000-06:00

Despite the recent ass-handing I've received from Tampa Bay Downs, I expect to have some picks for tomorrow's races. I didn't have the heart to post the picks and results from Tuesday's races, but let's just say I wasn't even close. I had used speed ratings as my primary key for eliminating the first batch of horses, which was an unqualified failure. Most of the horses didn't even make the top four. Ugh. I'll be returning to my "scratch the obviously bad horses" method for tomorrow's picks.

Dr. Pauly is an outstanding human being. BG went under the knife this week, and is going to be shouldering a heavy load of medical bills. Pauly took it upon himself to hold an impromptu fundraiser for him, which generated a pretty impressive response from the poker blogosphere. As a gambler, I chose the "tip the dealer" method of donating, by putting $10 down for him on one of my awful horses. I figure I'll give it another go tomorrow, and hopefully better picks will mean some bigger funds.

For some crazy reason, Mrs. Jackmama has taken pity on me and told me that I must play a tournament tonight. Wouldn't that be fun, if I could add some more actual poker content to my poker blog? Well, we'll see. After my last post on taking money away from people on Full Tilt, they leapt up and took some back. I dropped 3 buy-ins at the NL tables when my hands failed to hold up. I've earned much of it back, and I had my money in while I was ahead, so I'm not upset about it. I actually managed to cash in a single-table SNG last night, too. I was a heavy underdog when we got to heads-up, but managed to fight my way back to even. I raised a standard 3x the blinds with ATo, and he called. The flop came 995 and I pushed, since he'd folded to all of my pushes to that point. He called and showed 55. Ouch. Well, at least I played a decent game and made some money.

Tampa Bay Downs 2-4-06

2006-02-04T09:45:00.000-06:00

Race 1 - 6 Unbridled Mistress (5/2). With the possible exception of the unknown 7 Spring Star, this has got to be strongest horse in a weak field. If I weren't dodging long shots today, I would maybe throw a win bet down on 7 to see what happens.
UPDATE: Went off 2/1, didn't factor. Nice start. 7 took 3rd, so the longshot wasn't so hot, either.

Race 2 - 1 Stormy World (5/1). Some solid speed numbers, decent jockey and trainer. Another race where there isn't much good to find, and so if this one goes off 3/1 or better, it's probably a decent pick.
UPDATE: Went off 3/1, finished 4th.

Race 3 - 7 Secret Fantasy (7/2). This race actually has a couple of horses in it. 1 Sox it to Me and 8 Premiers Secret are likely to jump out to a quick lead, but I see 8 fading about halfway, leading 1 to fight off 2 Sweet Hello and 7. The last time 2 and 7 tangled, 7 pulled out the win with Clemente in the saddle, and the last time 2 won, Clemente was in the saddle. Where is Clemente today? Back in 7, so that's my pick.
UPDATE: Went off 6/1, no factor. 2 won it, followed by 1 and 8.

I may forgo commentary with my picks. I tend to babble, and I don't know if it adds much.

Race 4 - 3 Preceptor (3/1).
UPDATE: Went off 2/1, finished 4th. It's been a tough day so far.

Race 5 - Hard to pick this one, since a couple of the best horses are listed as "Also eligible." 9 Won Jenelle (5/2) has to be the best horse in the field, but 10 Killing M Softly (3/1) has a solid chance. If eligible, 12 Dance Matic (6/1) would get my win bet
UPDATE: About damned time. Dance Matic went off at 3/1 and won. 9 and 10 were scratched.

Cashing in at Full Tilt

2006-02-04T09:14:00.000-06:00

I played some .25/.50 NL on Full Tilt last night. I actually managed to log almost two hours of play, which is more than I've played all week. Jackmama's tip #1 that you don't play enough poker - You are unable to work off a $50 deposit bonus in three months. I've managed to release ten whole dollars from a deposit in December, although I have a couple weeks left to work on it. Another half hour or so will be good for another 5 dollars. Cha-ching.

Well, let's see how much time you manage to log when you have two kids under the age of two.

Matt Matros says to play aggressively with AK. I'm not as smart as Matt Matros, so I blindly obey.

I find myself in late position with AK. It is folded around to me, and I raise to $2. The button calls, the blinds fold. Flop comes 4d 4c Jc. I bet out $2.50 and the button folds, leaving the $4.55 pot to me.

It's entirely likely that my raise not only chased out the blinds, but that it gave my continuation bet more credibility. Matros mentions that many people like to limp with AK and see a flop. If I had done that, the missed flop would have represented a losing hand for me. By playing aggressively, I salvaged an ugly situation, and lived to play another hand.

I don't multi-table. It's just not poker for me. Some people make a lot of money doing it, and more power to them. Some people make a lot of money selling cars. Neither one works for me. When I play the low-limit NL games, I generally pay attention long enough to get a sense of the players at the table, and then I browse the web or pursue other pastimes. Last night, I was handicapping today's races at Tampa Bay Downs. I'm likely to blog some picks and results later, if any of you spambots are interested in following along. If you're actually interested in winning, you should probably see if BG is blogging his picks today. BG > me.

I was reading through the racing form and folding when Mrs. Jackmama asked for a back-cracking. I don't know anything about the health consequences of said activity, but she's a fiend for it. Anything that engenders such addiction in people can't be healthy.

Wait a minute. Don't you have a gambling blog? You not only gamble frequently, but you set aside more time to write about it?

Shut up.

I look down at the computer and see that I'm in the big blind with 8dTd. I click "Check/Fold" and get back to mangling the wife's spine. "Oh my," says Mrs. Jackmama, looking at my computer.

The flop had come 8c 8h Qd. This is why I hate to give a free flop to the big blind. Since I expected to have folded this hand, I have no idea who is still in. It looks like an EP caller and the small blind stuck around for the flop. SB checks, I check, and EP bets $1.50. SB calls, I raise to $5 and EP folds. SB re-raises all-in $19.65, but since he has me covered, it's really another $8.35. I call and he shows 7h8s. Yikes. I had put him on queens and eights, and I'm glad I have him out-kicked. Fortunately, no higher cards or sevens come out, and I take down the $29.70 pot.

I like the way I played that one, even though I missed the read. A set of eights makes for a nice push in that situation, and pushing out any possible straight draws is a good idea.

Usually, slow-playing is wasted in low-limit games, especially micro-limit games on the Internet. It's like Harrington says, 95% of the time, a bet means exactly what it looks like it means. Internet players seem to have a bigger problem with ego than live players--they'll frequently convince themselves that you're bluffing, and stay in a hand even when you bet strongly into them (this can be one of the leaks in my game. Not every time I play, but often enough). Even when they wise up on the turn, it can still be profitable to play the hand straight, and by eschewing the slow-play, you may find that the suckouts don't come as frequently. After all, if you don't give them an excuse to stay in the hand, some people will actually fold rather than suck out.

UTG, I find AcJc, and raise to $2. It is folded around to the button, who calls. Blinds fold. Flop comes 6c Jd 4c. I bet $3 and the button calls. Turn comes Ad. I now have aces and jacks, but there are two different flush draws on the board, clubs and diamonds. In a tough game, maybe it's worth it to check or limp, and hope to hit my club flush or dodge the diamond flush and bet the two pair strong on the river. In these weak games, where the players can literally have anything, why bother? I bet $7 into the $10 pot, enough to make the flush draw a bad call and the button folds. I take the $10.25 pot.

Maybe in a tough game I'd try to maximize that hand, but there's no point in risking the suckout. Take the money, pick some horses until another premium hand appears, and take what the other players give you. It may not be glamorous, but it seems to be working for me in the FTP cash games.

Mac Ascendancy

2006-02-03T14:40:00.000-06:00

I should really spend more time researching things. I visited the Tampa Bay Downs website today, looking for the morning lines on tomorrow's races, and noticed a big banner ad on the side for myracebet.com. I check it out, and I'll be damned if it doesn't have a whole list of supported race tracks, and a video feed that works on my mac. Jackpot! As soon as I play through $100 on youbet.com so BG gets his referral bonus, I'm so done with that Windows-only site. Stickin' it to the man.

I've been very lax in my poker play since Vegas. I'm planning to hit the cash games on Full Tilt tonight after the kids are pleasantly dreaming, and at least work off some deposit bonus before it expires. I have tomorrow's racing form for Tampa, so I should be able to keep myself occupied as I fold my way around the tables waiting for KK. Speaking of Tampa....tomorrow is the $60k Manatee Stakes! Woohoo! Ok, I'm not sure if it's any big deal beyond being a $60k race, but it sure is fun to say Manatee Stakes. Manatee!

UPDATE: Should anyone be interested in such a thing, I stumbled upon a free handicapping contest which starts tomorrow. You don't actually need to start tomorrow, though....the rules are that you have to make 28 picks by the end of April. Two of tomorrow's races are on the Racing Form "Race of the Week" page, and so the PPs are free. Free + free = FREE!

Tampa 2

2006-02-02T09:08:00.000-06:00

Unfortunately, gainful employment interferes somewhat with my ability to play the races during the day. I should be able to check in on the races before post and make some plays, but I don't think I'll be able to blog the progress. So, here are some of my pre-race notes and picks, with morning line.

Race 1 - 3 Noble Carter (7-2). I like this one at at least 2-1.
UPDATE: Went off 8-1, finished 4th.
Race 2 - 1 Rahy's Bachelor (5-1)
UPDATE: Went off 5-1, finished 2nd.
Race 3 - 5 Meri Michelle (4-1) and 11 Sothypann (20-1) as a longshot
UPDATE: Meri Michelle went off 5-2, finished 2nd. Sothypann went off 40-1, finished dead last. Ouch.
Race 4 - 4 Melon Moon (12-1) as a long shot, otherwise too many contenders.
UPDATE: Went off 15-1, finished further back than 4th.
Race 5 - No pick, even though 8 Graduation Party lists Secretariat as broodmare sire (that's the term for sire of the dam, right?). It may happen frequently, but I think it's neat to find Secretariat on a Tampa racing program. I'm new...sue me.
UPDATE: She took 3rd. I'm sure Grandpa is still proud.
Race 6 - 7 Queen Bastet (7-2) and 3 Starship Stripper (3-1). I'll take whichever has longer odds.
UPDATE: Queen Bastet went off 7-2, Starship Stripper 5-2. I took Queen Bastet, who took the win by a neck over Starship Stripper. I'm feeling a little better about myself now. I also hit the first half of a daily double, with 2 Bluff in the 7th race.
Race 7 - 2 Bluff (4-1), although 10 Society Sam (5-1) and 5 Cat Patrol (3-1) also look good. I could be tempted if 10 & 5 go to longer odds, and 2 becomes heavily bet.
UPDATE: Went off at 5-1, finished 3rd.

I didn't get a chance to make any picks in the later races.

Wish me luck!

UPDATE: I was only playing $2 Win bets and $2 Daily Doubles today, so I was in $18 and got $9 back. A disappointing day, but excluding the longshots, I think I picked some good horses. If I can focus on trying to find winners in the 5-2 to 5-1 range, I think I have a good chance of making some money.

WWdN Washout

2006-02-01T09:50:00.000-06:00

The WWdN tourney was uneventful. I had a couple of good hands early, but missed the flop on both, and they cost me about half my tournament stack. I managed to limp along for a while, but never got close to average again. With the blinds at 50/100 (I think), I pushed my remaining 500 or so with 77. I was called by AQ. The turn brought my third 7, but the river gave him a straight, putting me out 75th of 125. Oh well. It just wasn't my night. I got drummed out of a Sit N Go, too, after going up early and then misplaying several hands. My desperation pushes toward the end were very poorly timed, as I hit JJ and AA each time.

I only recognized one player at my table in the WWdN tourney. I choose to blame my lackluster showing on having a Platinum Star to my immediate right. Not buying it? Well, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. I was actually aware enough to stay out of any early confrontations with Wes.

I've only managed to pick one horse for tomorrow, so it's time to buckle down. BG has been raiding Tampa lately, and so they've probably made some halftime adjustments.

There's Always Room for Jello. And Gambling.

2006-01-31T12:24:00.000-06:00

Thursday is race day. After failing to find time last week to pick some horses, I'm giving myself two days to prepare for Thursday's races at Tampa Bay Downs. I created and funded my youbet account, and even tried to kick a little back to BG by listing him as my referral. I have already purchased Thursday's racing form and downloaded the Formulator data. I wonder if there's anything I forgot to link to?

I'm hoping to find time tonight to play in the WWdN weekly tournament. The timing is a little tough on me, since my darling children tend to still be awake when it starts, but maybe I can find a way to make it work. I've only played 15 minutes of a LHE cash game, and a $5 + .50 Sit N Go on Full Tilt (took 2nd) since I returned from Las Vegas, and I'm feeling an itch to play some more.

I received an invitation to play in a live tournament hosted by one of our marketing guys at work. It looks like a good tournament, with entries capped at 32 and a $100 buy-in. It should be a good mixture of decent players, and some people that just like to play. It should be a good time in any case.

Vacation Underway

2006-01-30T16:45:00.000-06:00

Midwest Airlines has two distinguishing characteristics. They used to have three distinguishing characteristics, but tough times in the airline industry forced them to give up the four-across leather seats on some of their flights. These so-called "Saver Service" flights have plain old cloth seats, three on one side and two on the other. Unfortunately, the Vegas flights are all in the saver service class.

The signature benefit to flying Midwest is that fresh-baked chocolate chip cookies are served on almost all flights. Breakfast flights miss out on the cookies. After spending $300 on a plane ticket, it may not seem like much to get a couple of cookies, but it really is pretty nice. It's certainly better than the stick in the eye that American Airlines gives you. Northwest also has direct flights, but I've been a little leery of them since their mechanics went on strike. I just don't think those guys are putting their hearts into their work.

Midwest has a quite a few direct flights from Milwaukee, and conveniently, they go to all of the places I like to go. I regularly visit Las Vegas, and I also like Tampa, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco, all direct flights on Midwest Airlines from Milwaukee. Non-stop flights are always nice, regardless of the airline, but if you're flying on Midwest they are essential, because of the third characteristic--they are always late. I don't fly as often as some, but every time I show up for a Midwest flight, it is delayed. Sometimes twenty minutes, sometimes 5 hours, but always late.

It was no surprise, then, that when we checked in at the airport for our flight to Las Vegas, we learned that it was delayed. Only twenty-five minutes or so, though, so that was almost like it was leaving early. We settled in at the gate, visions of black chips dancing in our heads.

One of the sacred rules of vacation, perhaps Rule 1a, Sub-rule 3c, is that the vacation does not actually start until the first beer is cracked, so Troy got us started on the first round, returning to the gate area with a Heineken for me and a Sam Adams for himself. I was full of nervous Vegas energy, and had trouble focusing on reading, so I kicked back with my iPod and beer, allowing Miles Davis to carry me along for a while.

As we neared boarding time, both Troy and I took our turns hitting the bathroom (can't leave the bags unattended, you know). Troy returned with a surprise second round as the plane began boarding, so we had to expedite consumption. Vacation underway.

Results

2006-01-27T16:06:00.000-06:00

Not the greatest day, but not bad for having limited time.

Race 1 - 8 Run M Run (4th (closed 7/5))

Race 2 - 4 Slippery When Wet. (3rd (closed 6/1)-- tie for first)

Race 3 - 8 Wandassilverstreak (2nd (closed 8/5))

Race 5 - 9 Premeditated (no factor (closed 5/1))

Race 6 - 11 Cover Me Lover (no factor)

Race 8 - 10 Boston Belga (3rd (closed 1/1))

Race 9 - 2 El Escorial (1st (closed 4/1))

Race 10 - 2 Albert Walk (no factor (closed 9/2))

On a $2 win base bet, that's $16 in, $10.80 back for the day.

Pony Friday

2006-01-27T09:55:00.000-06:00

I thought I was going to have a little time to do some handicapping last night, so I grabbed the racing form for Tampa Bay Downs. It turns out that I didn't have much time at all, so I skimmed through the races and picked some that looked good to me.

I should mention, as a caveat, that I don't try to pick the outright winner of the races. I try to find the horse with a chance to win, that will go off with at least 4/1 odds. I don't expect that anyone is going to run to their race-book and place bets based on my recommendations, but crazier things have happened. So, anyway, be warned.

These are all bet to win, and selected based on the opening odds.

Race 1 - 8 Run M Run

Race 2 - 4 Slippery When Wet.

Race 3 - 8 Wandassilverstreak

Race 5 - 9 Premeditated

Race 6 - 11 Cover Me Lover

Race 8 - 10 Boston Belga

Race 9 - 2 El Escorial

Race 10 - 2 Albert Walk

Domain-squatting for referrals?

2006-01-26T14:45:00.000-06:00

This is interesting. The WPBT domain name expired a couple of months ago, and I've periodically checked to see if anyone picked up the hosting. I have no personal stake in the domain name, as I've never played in any of the events, but you never know -- someday I may make it to one.

So, I check today and I end up at pokerroom.com. Some very brief research shows that http://www.wpbtonline.com now redirects to http://www.apokerroom.com/wpbtonline/ and then to http://www3.pokerroom.com/?ref=1720&page=64 and I'm guessing that someone saw the opportunity to pick up some free referrals. A quick WHOIS lookup can tell you who, if you're really interested.

I only mention this so everyone with a WPBT logo and link on their blogs can determine if this is the sort of thing they want to support, or if they want to to strip the link off the logo. I certainly don't know all (or any, really) of the bloggers involved, so I don't even know if it's one of them that registered the name. It's kind of tacky, though, so tend to think it's someone else.

A Night in Paris

2006-01-26T09:21:00.000-06:00

I played some poker while in Las Vegas. I started out playing at Paris, after we moved from Hard Rock on Saturday, and it's really only worth playing there if you have no better options. The room isn't actually a room -- it's a roped-off section of the casino. It's still new, so it may be worth checking out as time goes by ("Play it, Sam. Play 'As Time Goes By'"), but if you are looking for a nice poker room, there are better options. Many better options.

Fresh off earning some nice comps at the Hard Rock for blackjack and craps, I was very interested in knowing how my poker play would be rated by the casino. I was told that Paris had just starting rating poker play, but that it would probably work out to one dollar per hour for play at the 4/8 table. Well, ho-hum to that. At least the guy had the decency to look embarrassed as he told me. I don't know what kind of revenue a poker room generates for the casino, but if a buck an hour is the best you can do for comps, it's probably not even worth doing. Just enter me in a drawing for a free car or something.

I played roughly ten hours of 4/8 on Saturday. I was amazed to find that the game was exactly like the theoretical brick-and-mortar casino in my head. There were two or three people playing nearly every hand, two or three people taking their money, and the rest in a gray area until their play revealed to which group they belonged. As long as I waited on premium hands, and didn't get tangled up in a big pot with other good players, it was basically a relaxing afternoon of increasing my chip stack.

It wasn't all folding and free money, though. Fairly early in the session, I woke up with KK and came out for a raise. I had been at the table long enough to know that slow-playing was a waste of time, and that any raise, even mine, was going to get 3 or 4 callers. It did. The flop came out rainbow under-cards. It was checked to me and I bet. Folded around to a caller, and we were heads-up. Turn brought out another under-card, and I can't remember if I straight raised or check-raised, but the other guy called. At this point, I wondered if he had hit two pair in there somewhere, but most showdowns to this point had been won by low-to-medium pairs or Ace-high, even. River was a rag and the guy checked to me. I bet, he called and flipped up AA.

I put Mr. AA in the category of people to be treat with care. He recognized that I only played premium hands, and played them aggressively, so he let me drive the action and build the pot without ever signaling any strength. It was bad luck that not only was this guy one that knew what he was doing, but he had the hand to beat me. I suppose it was good luck that he didn't check-raise the river, because I would have been compelled to call and throw away another eight dollars.

I spent the next few hours making that money back, and ended the session fifty dollars up. After a couple of days of losing my ass in blackjack and craps, it was nice to spend some time playing a game that was +EV.

Later that night, I played some more, and failed to recognize the onset of exhaustion. After playing (and losing) a few big pots with the good players at the table, I realized it was time to go to bed. I left 150 down for the session, so 100 down for the day. If I had gotten up an hour earlier, I would have been (slightly) up for the session. Lesson learned. +EV is a state of mind.

Tidbits

2006-01-24T12:24:00.000-06:00

My flight landed at 11:15PM last night, and I am just beat today. I have several stories with which to regale my eager readership, but today I provide a couple of tidbits.

Overheard as I pass an elderly couple in front of Caesar's, as they admire the Eiffel Tower replica across the street: "No, that's Paris. That's supposed to be the Leaning Tower of Pisa."

I am launching a new regional economic indicator, based on the cost of a large cup of Starbuck's coffee. I await the calls from CNBC.

$1.81 Milwaukee Barnes and Noble
$2.40 Milwaukee Airport
$2.58 Las Vegas Airport
$2.59 Hard Rock Hotel
$3.29 Harrah's Las Vegas

That's it. I'll have more for you later.

The Final Countdown

2006-01-19T09:10:00.000-06:00

Today's the day. My flight leaves at 3, so I only took a half day of vacation, and now I'm stuck at work with Vegas thoughts in my head. I busted through everything I needed to get done yesterday, and so today finds me in a holding pattern. No sense starting any new projects, and so I play the waiting game. "Oh, the waiting game sucks!" Homer exclaims. "Let's play Hungry Hungry Hippos!"

I played a couple of the PokerStars cheapy tournaments the other night ($1 + .10 and $2 + .20). I cashed in the $2, but just barely, and so I ended up down 40 cents or so. Fortunately, my bankroll is healthy enough to handle violent swings like that.

While I played those tournaments, I tried to focus on the worst leaks in my game. I came up with the following rules, which comprise a strategy I have named "The Don't Play Stupid Poker Strategy." Catchy, eh?

Yes, he does have that king. I frequently talk myself into calling or reraising in situations where the voice in the back of my head is screaming that I'm beat. The idiot at the front of my head says, "Nah, he's bluffing," like Phil Connors in Groundhog Day playing chicken with the train.
Playing the K5 in the small blind is always a bad idea. Always. Even if everyone limps, and you're getting amazing pot odds to call, just fold. Almost every time, you'll feel compelled to play if a K flops, and then you'll be outkicked.
If you make a continuation bet with nothing and are raised, fold. Clearly, if you represent strength pre-flop and the other guy hangs around, and then you show strength again and he responds with more strength, then you're probably beat. Convincing yourself that he is bluffing will cost you money. See rule 1.

Hardly an exhaustive strategy, but it never hurts to work some things into your game.

I am not likely to post again until next week, so best of luck to everyone in Atlantic City and Tunica for their respective tournaments. It figures that I would fly to Vegas when there are two big tournaments elsewhere, but maybe that means there's more tourist money waiting there for me.

Kill Phil v Jack Bauer

2006-01-17T17:17:00.000-06:00

Kill Phil v Jack Bauer

I just finished reading Kill Phil and I realized that it is the poker equivalent of 24.

Check it out.

Kill Phil is geared toward beginning players, who can't hope to compete against professionals post-flop.

Jack Bauer is always playing catch-up to the bad guys, picking up clues as he goes, but never aware of the big picture.

Kill Phil gets all the money in the pot pre-flop, picking a premium hand and getting in behind it.

Jack Bauer comes up with a plan that might work, and puts it all on the line.

Jack Bauer tortures suspects for information.

Kill Phil puts good players on tilt.

Jack Bauer is considered to be out of control and a danger to the mission by the powers that be.

Kill Phil players are called donkeys, pushmonkeys and worse by the self-appointed table authorities on the game.

Plaza Ponies

2006-01-17T13:34:00.000-06:00

Countdown to Vegas, Episode 3. Mrs. Jackmama suggested that I do some kind of countdown to my trip, and I decided to write a story per day from one of my previous visits.

March 2005

Mrs. Jackmama called to see how it was going. I told her we were playing the horses.

"I want to make a bet," she said.

"OK," I replied. "The fourth race at Tampa Bay Downs is coming up next."

We were in the sports and race book in the Plaza. I had just started to become interested in horse racing, and my parents decided to join me for a morning at the track.

I was primarily playing Aqueduct, because that's what the people on TV do. I have since learned that it's a bad idea to play the larger tracks, because that's where you're most likely to find the people that know what they're doing. Fortunately, I worked in some races from Tampa Bay Downs, because that's the first race track I ever visited in person. The reasoning may have been lame, but at least it was a smaller track, and not very attractive to the good handicappers. My bets throughout the morning were not very notable. I won just enough to keep betting, and even hit an exacta, although it didn't pay out much. That's what you get for betting a 2-favorite exacta.

I read off the names of the horses in the fourth race, and Mrs. Jackmama selected one. I chuckled to myself, knowing that the name was no way to pick a winner. I'd been puzzling through the racing form all morning, and was on the cusp of figuring out the best method for handicapping, and it had nothing to do with the name, I'll have you know.

"You want to bet it to win, place or show?" I asked.

"To win!"

"OK, good luck."

I returned to our table to pick an actual winner. I found one that looked promising, and placed our bets.

Mrs. Jackmama's horse won. Of course.

Mom was using a name-based betting system, as well. We'd been chatting with the ladies at the window with each bet, and they tolerated our silliness because we were clearly there for entertainment purposes only. Somewhere around the 8th race, Mom informed one of the ladies that her next bet would be buying dinner.

After the race had run, the lady asked us if she should sent the hot dog guy around.

Netflix Comedy

2006-01-16T17:04:00.000-06:00

This has to be the funniest Netflix queue entry ever. I guess that's not a very high threshold.

Rite of Passage

2006-01-16T12:37:00.000-06:00

In honor of Martin Luther King, Jr., and the holiday which bears his name, I played some poker today. It's the least I could do with my day off.

I've never considered myself to be a writer. Sure, there's that Bachelor's Degree in English, but I focused primarily on literary criticism. I took several creative writing courses, but only wrote enough to complete the assignments. I actually had a short essay published in the university's literary magazine as a freshman, called "Why Are Women Cold?" I'll have dig that one up and post it. It makes me cringe, as I notice some of the more clumsy elements, but I still like it, and I'm proud of it. Not many people ever find themselves published, even in a small University magazine.

I wrote a paper on Rene Descartes for a philosophy class I took at community college as I re-took most of my freshman year (turns out you actually need to go to class once in a while. Who knew?). The instructor asked if he could submit it to the literary magazine there, and I'm told that it was actually published. One of these days, I should look it up and see.

So what happened? I just never thought I had anything to say. I enjoy writing, and believe I do a competent job of it, but the motivation has never been there. So, rather than go to work at a Kwik-E-Mart or whatever English majors end up doing, I continued working at the PC company where I built computers during college, and eventually worked my way up into one of those fancy IT jobs, just before the tech bubble burst and the music stopped. I feel for everyone that was left without a chair, but I'm grateful for how things worked out for me.

So now, thanks to this blog, I'm back to writing, and today I feel like a Real Writer. For each and every day leading up to my Vegas trip, I was writing a different story about a previous trip. Yesterday, there was no story. I missed a deadline! That's what makes a real writer, dagnabit.

Rather than revel in my writerhood, though, I am compelled to get back to work. I noticed that I am now linked by some of my favorite blogs, and I have an obligation to prove I can type several words per day, organized into neat sentences and paragraphs. It is the ability to blog that separates us from the animals. Except for all those people that blog pictures of their dogs and cats...you can never really tell who is in charge there. Some of those animals look pretty sophisticated.

Thanks to AlCantHang, JoeSpeaker and MrSubliminal for throwing my link into your blogrolls. Even when you primarily write for yourself, it's nice to know that people are reading.

Making an Entrance

2006-01-14T15:38:00.000-06:00

Countdown to Vegas, Episode 2. Mrs. Jackmama suggested that I do some kind of countdown to my trip, and I decided to write a story per day from one of my previous visits.

March 2003

I didn't make my first trip to Las Vegas until I was 30 years old. For whatever reason, I had suppressed the inner gamble and hadn't yet felt the pull. I think a large part of that stems from traveling in a circle of friends that never arranged a bachelor party in Las Vegas. Everyone else in my family seems to have done that, but the planets never aligned for me. I am holding out for a friend of mine to get married again, if only so I can convince him to have the wedding in Las Vegas. I selflessly offered to make the trip, and to attend the wedding between sessions at the craps table.

It happened that one year, my parents and aunt and uncle were planning a spring trip to Vegas, and asked Mrs. Jackmama and I if we would be interested. Well, yes. Aside from being our first trip to the Happiest Place on Earth, this was also the first time I'd been invited to go on vacation with my parents, and accorded the same adult status as everyone else (i.e., they weren't going to pick up the check). I've always been a largely independent sort of kid, but something about going on a vacation with your parents as an adult gives you pause for thought. Like having to stop thinking of yourself as a kid. Which I apparently haven't done yet, almost three years later.

We stayed at the New Frontier, which now holds the distinction of being Next Rat-trap to Be Torn Down, I think. The last time I strolled through the Frontier, I felt an almost palpable sense of desperation, exhaustion and fatalism. Unlike other casinos, where some craps table or roulette table is crowded with a cackling bachelorette party, the Frontier is like walking into a library. A library with rows of slot machines and no prohibition on smoking, that is. The entire gambling population seems to be retirees bent on putting their last fifty bucks into a slot machine so the ungrateful wretches that sold their houses and put them in retirement communities can't take the last of it. I wanted to play some blackjack, for old time's sake, but I just couldn't get out of there fast enough.

My parents and aunt and uncle have made many, many pilgrimages to the Mecca. For our first trip, they wanted to make sure we saw all the sights we'd need to see, and to make sure that we signed up for player's cards at every casino. They each produced lanyards with a dozen cards attached, that they carried along with them to every casino. In order to get rated for your play, the casinos require that you sign up for one of their cards and present it at every game you play. I initially scoffed at the idea, but using the card at the Frontier, combined with my mom's characteristic persistence, resulted in a Sunday - Saturday stay of $246. At that rate, I can forgive many shortcomings in a hotel.

After checking in, we went on a walking tour of the north end of the Strip. We strolled through the Stardust, which is somewhat less dead than the Frontier, but Boyd Gaming's recent announcement of plans to tear it down can't have come too soon. All the bargain-rate travelers, and families staying at Circus Circus have destroyed everything north of the Wynn. All of this went unnoticed by me in 2003, in part because I was seeing everything through new eyes, and partly because the Wynn was a vast construction project directly outside my window at the Frontier, and was populated by loud machines which woke me up at promptly 6:05 each morning. I was told that a new resort was going up, and that it was by Steve Wynn. In my Vegas innocence, that meant very little to me. I actually imagined it was some sort of waterpark going in.

Our next stop was the Westward Ho, which was Next Rat-trap to Be Torn Down a couple of months ago. I believe it has realized that potential. I remember being in middle school when my parents made their first trip to Vegas, and that they stayed at the Westward Ho. They even brought back some decks of cards, and the Westward Ho was one of my favorite decks. It seemed like an adventurous name for an exciting place. Jeez louise. I can't imagine a less adventurous or exciting place. I read recently about parents who take advantage of in-store daycares at places like Ikea, and drop their kids off to go get their hair cut or shop elsewhere, and then return after several hours to collect their kids. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that people did the same thing with their elderly parents at Westward Ho. If those people were any older or more sedentary, they'd be under glass. *rim-shot*

The Westward Ho earned its place in the pantheon of my gambling memory by being the very first casino I ever played blackjack in, outside of Indian casinos. Indian casinos don't count because, as one man I met so accurately described them, "They're just bingo halls that deal cards." So I made my grand entrance at a $3 table.

It wasn't my first time playing blackjack, so I had a decent handle on basic strategy and could play without looking like an idiot. Well, I thought so, anyway.

I played a couple of easy hands before a waitress came along. "Can I get you something, hun?"

"Sure, could I get a Corona?"

She favored me with a pitying glance and then explained, "I'm sorry, dear, but since you're only betting 3 dollars, I can only get you something from the tap."

Ouch. Way to look like you've been there before.

"A glass of Bud Light would be fine," I said, trying to maintain some dignity.

The next hand was dealt and I was so flustered by the waitress that I made a really stupid play. Hit 4 against a 6 or something. I don't remember what the cards were, but it set the old biddies at the other end of the table into a grumbling festival. Never show weakness in front of bitter old women waiting to die. I played a few more hands and then moved on.

As the week wore on, I realized how ridiculous the situation at the Westward Ho was. I had no reason to feel flustered because the cheap bastards that run the casino wouldn't offer bottled beer at the table. Hell, they advertise 99 cent bottles of Heineken! Can they really expect people to believe that they lose money on beer at a $3 blackjack table?

Further, the people that bitch and complain about other players at a blackjack table almost never understand the game. They learned how to play from some uncle that picked up what he knew from a strategy card, and don't know how to react to unorthodox plays. I've been known to split 9s against an 8, knowing that it's a risk to try to hit two 10s, but sometimes I haven't seen many 10s and know that they must be coming. Big deal. The biggest mistake people make at a blackjack table is believing that someone else's play affects them. Those people irritate me.

Clearly, I am a lot more confident in the casinos now, with several more Vegas trips under my belt. I'm also more comfortable allowing the Inner Gambler to shine through sometimes, especially if it's going to piss off some old biddy that learned how to play blackjack in a bingo parlor. I will go out of my way to help new people that ask for help, and I'll defend people that play foolishly, because it's their damned money. Mostly though, I don't play a lot of blackjack any more. If I'm going to gamble at something with a house advantage, I'll play craps. There's just something about a game where everyone wins and loses together.

Except for those Don't Pass bettors who don't know to keep their traps shut when they're winning. They can go straight to Hell with those old biddies that welcomed me to the Westward Ho.

Lucky at the Hard Rock

2006-01-13T16:04:00.000-06:00

Countdown to Vegas, Episode 1. Mrs. Jackmama suggested that I do some kind of countdown to my trip, and I decided to write a story per day from one of my previous visits.

July 2005

I'm in Las Vegas for a notorious computer hacking conference. This is the last year it will be held at the Alexis Park Resort Hotel, across from the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, although we don't know it. The Alexis Park is an all-suite hotel, which turns into a large collective of various parties and DJ stands every night during DefCon. For many people, this is their major vacation of the year, and the only time to see some friends.

I know a few people here, but I'm primarily interested in the talks. A large part of my job is handling network and computer security, and so hearing directly from the people on both sides of the hacking front is instructive. I've been spending most of my time watching the various talks or browsing the vendor booths. Periodically, I'll stop in what is known as the "chill-out" area, where you can get a beer from the bar and just hang out for a bit.

In the chill-out area I overhear a man explaining to someone how he convinced his employer to place a priority on security, "It's like a prostate exam. It's unpleasant at first..."

This is the first time I've heard someone imply that a prostate exam gets better after the initial discomfort. I'm guessing that you just need to lay back and enjoy it. Fortunately, I'm still several years away from my first exam. In a year or two, a technological breakthrough will radically change the prostate exam into something that can be delivered via a shot of tequila. Anyone that can't handle tequila can stick with the old way.

As the Saturday afternoon talks wind down, I decide it's time to get some gamble on. I've been in Vegas since Thursday night, and haven't caught so much as a whiff of green felt. I feel the lure of the MGM poker room, but for some reason decide to kick it old-school, and try out Binion's. I jump into a 2/4 Hold 'Em game and make a respectable $35 in the hour I'm sitting there. For all the history and Binion's "mystique," the poker room is pretty dumpy. I'm ready to hit the road when I get a call from some friends that they're going to be hosting a party in their room tonight.

I return to the Alexis Park, back to even. Note to self, try to earn more than cab fare next time you decide to journey downtown. I stop at my room to pick up some bottles of Newcastle and head over to the party suite. I find it well-stocked with Corona, and so I dig into those after depositing my Newcastle in the sink (in ice, not poured out, mind you).

I start talking to a couple guys about craps, and we all start to feel the itch. We find ourselves walking to the Hard Rock in very short order.

It's a Saturday night, and this is the Hard Rock, so table minimum is $10. That's a little beyond my normal craps comfort zone, but since I have hardly gambled so far this trip, I feel like I can absorb the risk. One of the tables is nearly full, and I head over there, peripherally aware of the other two guys taking positions across the table.

The girl to my left has a mantra. Prior to every throw, and for every shooter, she calls, "Come on, shooootah!" Her voice is nasal, with some sort of Brooklyn accent, and she sounds an awful lot like Fran Drescher. It's hypnotic, almost, and since the table keeps paying, I like it. Every time she calls out, "Come on, shooootah!" it sounds like chips stacking up in front of me. The Casino is dark, casting shadows on even those standing next to you, but after a brief glance, I'm pretty sure this girl is as hot as her voice is annoying. I don't care about that, though, she just needs to keep with the rhythm, "Come on, shoooootah!"

We seem to have hit the perfect combination as a new shooter at the end of the table starts a magnificent run. The girl's Dad (boyfriend? Hard to say at the Hard Rock) stops by and she comments to him how the shooter is on fire. He says something to her and gestures toward the door. I can't allow her to leave!

"She has to stay! You're going to let her finish this point, right?"

He smiles and nods like I'm dangerous and not to be disturbed, but he steps back a bit and she stays. Another roll, another "Come on, shoooootah!" and I rake in some more chips.

The shooter finally craps out, and I find myself up $300. I look over at the girl and we share in the moment. Like when you're a kid and saved the best roller coaster in the park for last, and when the ride is over, you're exhilarated by the ride, but there's a hint of depression caused by the knowledge that you can't go again.

She leaves with her Dad (The sweet purity of the memory demands that I believe he was her Dad). I color up and head back to the party, relishing my first-ever winning session at the Hard Rock.

Omalympics

2006-01-12T13:58:00.000-06:00

Donk, donk, donk-tastic. How else to sum up my performance in the DADI Omalympics Tourney last night? I might try to qualify my horrendous play by pointing out that I had never before played Pot-Limit Omaha8, but then I'd have to answer uncomfortable questions about why I ponied up the the eleven bucks to enter a tourney.

I managed to get a quick 15-minute skim of the Omaha Hi-Lo chapter in SS2, and took away two pearls of wisdom for the beginning player:

Only play if you have an ace.
Don't chase the low.

Now, that's some good advice. I figured I could follow that advice until I got comfortable in the game, and then let my "poker instinct" take it from there. Oh yeah, I'm like the LeBron James of poker...just put me out there on the court, and I let my natural talent take over.

Let's say I was dealt something along these lines -- KJT3. According to the rules outlined above, that's an easy fold, right? So why was I seeing so many flops with hands like that? How about A863? Don't chase the low...fold. Again, many flops. I may have confused natural poker talent for donktastic chip spewing ability.

I didn't go out first. I take solace in that.

A Moment of Poker and Fatherhood Zen

2006-01-10T11:08:00.000-06:00

I never read Fatherhood by Bill Cosby, but I'm fairly certain it does not contain the following sentence, spoken while playing NLHE online and holding your 7-week-old daughter:

"Tell ya what--I'm gonna play to my blind, and then we'll change your diaper."

It's a different generation, Cos.

Unacceptable.

My iTunes library has 4147 songs, and the following five songs comprise my entire Las Vegas playlist. It goes without saying that I'll need to raid the iTunes Music store for more selections. At the very least, I need to find some Dean Martin and Frank Sinatra. And maybe some Celine Dion and Barry Manilow. OK, not so much those last two.

Lucky Too by Bob Neuwirth (Sung by Nick Stokes in the Tarantino-directed CSI)
Viva Las Vegas by Dead Kennedys
That Was Crazy Game of Poker by Of A Revolution
Baby Got Back by Richard Cheese (Lounge Act)
40 Miles to Vegas by Southern Culture on the Skids

A Pirate's Life for Me!

2006-01-09T15:15:00.000-06:00

My pirate name is:

Iron Sam Roberts

A pirate's life isn't easy; it takes a tough person. That's okay with you, though, since you a tough person. Two things complete your pirate persona: style and swagger. Maybe a little too much swagger sometimes -- but who really cares? Arr!

Get your own pirate name from fidius.org.

The Rockets' Red Glare

2006-01-09T14:48:00.000-06:00

Someone at PokerStars is reading this blog. Even though sitemeter confirms that I am the only reader, along with spambots and itinerant poker bloggers. Well, the good doctor visited one time, anyway. Even in the face of overwhelming evidence that no one, especially people of influence at PokerStars, reads this blog, I remain convinced. And I have evidence.

Remember this post? I made a big deal out of how cool it was for Full Tilt to release a Mac client, and that everyone should buy a Mac and play online at Full Tilt. I have not yet felt the wrath of Bill Gates, but the "good people" (and I say good people in the most sarcastic, finger-quoting way possible) at PokerStars have made their displeasure known.

There was some time set aside Saturday night for poker. This is a rare and wonderful thing, as anyone with two small children will attest. I decided to try a $10+1 SNG, and see if I could turn around my recent slump in tourneys. No. Apparently not. Two SNGs, two early bust-outs. That left my PokerStars account looking pretty anemic, and so I hit the ring games to rebuild it.

The pain of reading through the hand histories is more than I can stomach, but I distinctly remember having my ass handed to me at least 3 times in an hour, by the same guy holding AA each time. Put that on my stubborn refusal to believe that he had AA every time (and he had it a couple of times when I wasn't in the hand, too). I believe that PokerStars knew that repeated AA beatdowns would tilt me, and that's what it did. Dirty bastards. Let's see if they can hurt me when I don't have any money left on their site! Ha, take that!

I still do reasonably well on Full Tilt lately, and so I guess I just kinda freaked out this weekend on the AA guy. Really irritating. I suppose I just need to suck it up and try to get a few wins. I'm intrigued by the tournament strategy set forth in Kill Phil by Blair Rodman and Lee Nelson. I may force myself to play a few tourneys by its guidelines, just to get outside of my game a little bit and see what I've been missing lately. They're printing strategy cards for people to buy and take into live tourneys, which doesn't seem too useful. If I see a guy referring to a Kill Phil strategy card, I'm pretty sure he's going all-in with premium hands, or he's folding. Not much to read, there. Still, a lot of people are reporting success using the strategy, and my guess is that the push-or-fold nature of it is tilting people left and right. It would be fun to be called a pushmonkey as I knock somebody out.

Anyway...

I leave for Vegas in a week and a half. Time to start watching some movies to get the blood rushing. Here are some that I have in mind:

The Cincinnati Kid (I just got this one, and have never seen the whole thing)
Swingers (They're gonna give Daddy the Rainman suite!)
Ocean's 11 (It's just so pretty)
Rounders (Johnny Fuckin Chan)

Cry Me a River

2006-01-06T10:00:00.000-06:00

My love affair with the NLHE ring games continues. I've been playing the ring games on Full Tilt, and tourneys on PokerStars. I'm not sure why I broke it out like that, but it's causing me to ignore PokerStars and my subpar tourney performance of late. I also love Full Tilt because of the Mac client. I may start playing there exclusively, to save the trouble of firing up Virtual PC on ye olde powerbooke.

Enough with the Fult Tilt pimpage. Everyone should buy a Mac, and everyone should play on Full Tilt. Well, now I'm done.

Also, immediately following my anti-strategy post, we have here a strategy post. Or at least commentary on a hand I played. I'm whimsical and contrary like that.

I played a hand last night at a .25/.50 NLHE table that highlights the crippling effect of weak betting. It's the very first hand, and I'm dealt Ac5s in the BB. Folded to MP, who raises to $1, his left calls, folded to me. I decide to see a flop and call for another .50.

Flop comes Kc Ah As. Nice, but if someone else is holding an A, I'm out-kicked. I check, ready to fold to a decent bet. The other two check. Either they're both scared, or slowplaying.

Turn comes Js. Well now, I now longer have to worry about the A, unless one of them has AK, AQ or AJ. Based on preflop betting, I consider it unlikely. It is possible, however, that one of them decided to play QT, and just hit a straight. I figure that one of them is going to bet, and since it's conceivable that I'm beat, I'll probably fold to a 3/4 or pot-sized bet. I check, and original raiser bets $1, his left calls. This isn't enough information, so I raise to $4. Both call. I figure at least one of them has me beat, but I get to see one more card.

5c comes on the river. So now I've beaten the straight and the Ax. I've already ruled out AK, AQ and AJ, so I figure I've got the nuts at this point, but at least one of the other players thinks he's the winner. I bet a measly $3 to bring out a raise, but both players call. I take it down and they muck. $24.25 to me, after being willing to fold on both 3rd and 4th street to any aggressive bet.

Original raiser had AT, and complains about the river. I'm not sure why...the best he had was a tie if I don't hit that 5. Other player had hit the straight on the turn, and must have thought he was being crafty with his slowplay. If he figured he was that far ahead, though...why not raise on the river? I didn't stay at the table for very long, but I imagine that guy was just a calling station and thought he was reeling us in.

So, they both had a chance to take the pot outright. The AT could have bet strong on the flop, and the QT should have bet the turn, in order to drive out the straight and flush draws. Neither one gave an indication that they were trying to maximize the return on their hands -- they simply played weak-tight and it bit 'em.

My favorite part, of course, is that they both saw it as a bad beat, and thought the river beat them. I'll happily accept the luckbox table image, especially from people that play so weakly that they don't recognize their own culpability in my win.

Dreaming of Living the Dream

2006-01-05T13:56:00.000-06:00

I wandered into the online casino at Pinnacle Sports Book the other day, shocked to find that it launched automatically in the web browser, and ran on my Mac. I checked out the blackjack game and won back the money I lost on those awful Sunday football picks. Today, I popped on and won the money I lost on the USC chokers. How long do you suppose I can keep up a winning streak in online blackjack?

The poker sections of bookstores are overflowing with strategy offerings. Many, many poker blogs and discussion forums exist for the sole purpose of discussing topics like whether to play AJs in the cutoff, shorthanded in a cash game online. Or in a brick and mortar casino. Is the strategy different? Do you have a read on your opponents? Discuss.

That bores me. I read the books, mind you, and gain some valuable insight from the authors. I really don't care to talk about it, though. In my experience, every single situation is just different enough that trying to devise an optimal overall strategy is futile. Maybe that makes me a "feel" player. Actually, I do base a lot of my play on feel. If I had to grind it out in limit games, basing every decision strictly on pot odds and implied odds, I'd stop playing.

Poker is about winning money. No two ways about it. It's not about making the mathematically correct play or being smarter than the other people or executing elegant strategies (What the hell is a stop-n-go? Who cares?). Just money. I'd like for everyone at the table to think I'm a luckbox, and I won't try to defend plays that someone else thinks are dumb. Especially if I just sucked out a 3rd six for my pocket sixes to beat his pocket queens (it happened last night. Fu-huh-nny). I make good plays most of the time and questionable plays often enough to make sure I get action on my good hands. Works for me.

That's about as far in-depth as my poker discussion gets. I am far more interested in the gambling lifestyle, such as it is. Dr. Pauly owes much of his success to his excellent coverage of the 2005 World Series of Poker, and an equal measure to stories surrounding the WSOP. He's living the dream, doing what many of us would love to do, and reporting it all back to us. Anyone that plays as much poker as he does is bound to have some good strategy conversations, but that's not what his blog is about. It's about everything that goes along with playing poker, gambling and spending time in Vegas, topics near and dear to my heart.

If someone wants to share stories about how pissed off that one guy got when his aces got cracked, I'm up for that. Any sort of story about gambling, surrounding gambling, or completely unrelated to gambling works for me. Do you see why?*

I think of this blog as my gambling diary. Sure, poker dominates my time, but there's plenty of craps, sports betting and horse racing to fit in there, as well as the broad category of "other." What possible strategy can there be in playing online blackjack? You get more hands per hour, which means playing basic strategy will bleed your money away faster than if you just sit in a casino. But I'm up 50 bucks on it! That's the beauty of gambling.

I think it was in Tales From the Tiltboys that I saw the theory of luck discussed. Sure, blackjack is a negative expectation game over time, but how much time? Could I play enough blackjack to be a winner and never have it even out on me? This could account for why some people are considered lucky and some unlucky. The long run may just be too long for variance to catch up with you. That's my dream, anyway. Always on the run from the Law of Large Numbers.

Well, that was fun. Let's have more of these rambling, mostly disjointed discussions. Later.

*If you got that joke, you spend too much time reading strategy forums. If you didn't get it, it was pretty lame anyway.

Sometimes the hype is right

2006-01-04T13:06:00.000-06:00

I'm working on some more honest-to-goodness poker content, but in the meantime, I felt compelled to make a pick for tonight's Rose Bowl. Sometimes the hype is right on target and tonight I think we'll see USC trounce a Longhorn team that struggled against Oklahoma State in one of their last games. I hate to be the 90th person to point it out, but there won't be any comebacks against USC. If you're not scoring a touchdown on every possession, the game is over.

Selection 1: NCAA Football
USC 4-January-2006 5:00 PM PST
Spread -7 for Game +100

It's all part of my rock roll fantasy

2006-01-02T08:32:00.000-06:00

Ouch. I sincerely apologize if anyone took those picks yesterday. They were just bad, bad, bad.

I was down to the Fantasy Bowl in my work league yesterday. Winner of the Fantasy Bowl gets 50% of the prize pool, and the loser gets nothing. I already have 30% coming to me (winning my division, plus most overall points scored in the regular season), but a nice round 80% sounded nice. Unfortunately, I rode Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck for most of the season, and they weren't getting much time in a meaningless game. I was leading until the closing minutes of the Eagles/Redskins, when the Redskins defense scored off a fumble recovery. Ouch.

Going into last night's game, I was leading my family fantasy league by 7 points. This league pays out weekly based on best score, and the big payout is for the highest scores for the course of the season. Nipping at my heels were the teams with Terry Glenn and Julius Jones. Dead meat, right? Not this time. Those cowgirls choked like they were Larry Johnson having a tender moment with his girlfriend.

Fantasy recap - 30% of the overall in the work league, and first place in the family league. That should be a few hundred more for the Vegas bankroll.

Poker recap - after a couple of winning sessions in Full Tilt ring games ($.25/.50), I dropped a buy-in ($20) yesterday. I don't think I'll be building much of a bankroll at these limits.

Sports recap - Ugly. Still up for the season, but yesterday's losses were not pleasant.

I'm feeling the Vegas itch. All of the trip reports from the recent WPBT Tournament have me eager to try out the Excalibur and MGM poker rooms, and I want to see the new Caesar's room. Of course, the Wynn and Bellagio each require a visit, as well. And Casino Royale!

Wait a minute. Did you say Casino Royale?

Yes I did. I love playing $2 craps at Casino Royale. There, I've admitted it. I also enjoy playing craps at less sticky casinos, but I always need to clock some time at the 100X odds tables.

Last Call

2006-01-01T10:19:00.000-06:00

For the final Sunday of the NFL season...

Selection 1: NFL Football
Chicago Bears 1-January-2006 1:15 PM PST
Money Line for Game +187

Selection 2: NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals 1-January-2006 10:00 AM PST
Spread +9 for Game +100

Selection 3: NFL Football
New Orleans Saints/Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-January-2006 10:00 AM PST
Total Points UNDER 37.5 for Game -103

Happy New Year!

2005-12-31T08:37:00.000-06:00

Ah, the last week of the regular season. No one knows which teams will actually field all their starters, which are playing for the Reggie Bush lottery, and which will actually show up to play. Kinda like the preseason, and I like it, if only because it feeds the inner gambler. Without further ado, I bring you today's selections.

Selection 1: NFL Football
Denver Broncos 31-December-2005 1:30 PM PST
Spread +11 for Game -105

Selection 2: NFL Football
New York Giants/Oakland Raiders 31-December-2005 5:00 PM PST
Total Points OVER 40.5 for Game -103

Selection 3: NCAA Football
South Florida 31-December-2005 8:00 AM PST
Money Line for Game +146

Moving on... (to quote an excellent poker blogger who was kind enough to stop by and read my last post, and wish me well in the weight loss bet).

We weighed in yesterday, and I hit my weight on the nose. Of all the people that made it, I'm the only one that didn't actually lose more than I needed to. I guess that's maximum efficiency. Twelve people total, nine made their weight, so we each got $133 back on our $100 investment. 33% over 3 months isn't bad if you're investing, but it's pretty crappy for a bet. There won't be any more of those goofy wagers in my future, but there is an extra $133 in my bankroll--actually $266 more, because my lovely bride matched my winnings. Sweet -- a goofy bet with a nice overlay.

Adjusting to two kids, and having the holidays come up on us took away most of my time for playing poker. Hopefully, that will change soon (I've been playing a little .25/.50 NL Hold 'Em on FTP as I compose this). I've been doing OK in the ring games lately, so expect to hear more about them.

Finally, happy new year to all you spambots, and the couple of actual people (you know who you are).

It's a Hobby

2005-12-20T07:55:00.000-06:00

Gambling is a hobby for me. I don't imagine that I will ever generate steady income from gambling; at least, it's never likely to come close to replacing the steady income I get from my job. Further, I don't get caught up in maximizing my return from gambling. I'm not going to multi-table on Party and pick up extra nickels all day long. I play poker because it's fun for me. Same goes for sports betting, horse racing and craps.

Even playing for fun, I hate to lose at anything, and I really hate the feeling of being played for a sucker. I hardly ever play blackjack any more because the casinos have added decks and reduced payouts on the naturals at every turn, and make it harder and harder to play a winning game. On the other hand, I really enjoy playing craps. I have a set pattern that I adhere to, and never play the sucker bets in the middle. With an adequate buy-in, I can generally ride out the cold shooters and walk away with more than I bought in with.

Poker, horse racing and sports betting are the areas where you can theoretically gain an edge, mostly because you're going against the general public, and the casino is skimming off the top. Usually. Sometimes, casinos are known to take sides with the lines they put out, but generally they try to balance the action, and the winners are taking money from the losers, minus some vig. These are the areas in which I do a lot of research and read a lot of instructional books, especially poker. If I can give myself an edge over the Average Joe, well, that beats *being* the Average Joe, doesn't it?

I don't have an actual bankroll. Whenever I go to Vegas, I take out a certain amount of money that I earmark for gambling, and if any of it remains when I get home, I deposit it back into the bank. This has always worked pretty well for me, and it will probably continue to at least partially make up my Vegas bankroll. This time, I thought it might be fun to consciously try to build a bankroll before my trip next month, and see how long I can play it.

I have poker and sports book accounts, and I can place racing bets through the sports book. So where is the greatest amount of bankroll cash coming from?

Prop bets and fantasy football.

Seriously.

I won my division and scored the most points in the regular season in one of my fantasy leagues, which guarantees me a couple hundred bucks, and if I win out through the playoffs, that's a few hundred more. I just destroyed the competition in the first round, so things look promising there.

I managed to get involved in a weight-loss pool at work. Everyone throws in $100, and has to lose 10% of their weight by December 30. Winners split the pool. I'm 5' 10" and weighed in at 183 on October 3rd, so while I wasn't being knocked over by strong winds, I clearly didn't have a lot of excess weight. As of today, I'm 4 pounds away from the 165 I have to hit, and so cashing in this pool looks promising. It's hard to get an accurate read on the other people, but at least 3 people aren't even close, and so that would be $30 on top of the $100 I get back if I hit (there are 13 total people).

As my last poker post indicates, the tourneys have been killing me lately, and I'm probably down 120 bucks in poker. I had a decent night at the NL ring games on Friday, so I'm creeping back to even. I went 3-3 with last weekend's games, and so I lost a little vig and the ill-advised parlay bet, but I'm still up for the season. I even blew some money on horse racing last week, but just some minimum bets. All told, I'm probably currently even on the poker, sports and horses front.

So much for gaining an edge. I wonder if Caesar's sports book is taking prop bets on what I weigh.

Sunday Picks

2005-12-18T11:11:00.000-06:00

1-2 yesterday. Let's hope these do better. Really, though...all I needed was 10 lousy points out of the Buccaneers. What happened there?

Selection 1: NFL Football
Indianapolis Colts 18-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Spread -6.5 for Game -102
---
Selection 2: NFL Football
Arizona Cardinals/Houston Texans 18-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 42 for Game -105
---
Selection 3: NFL Football
Philadelphia Eagles/St Louis Rams 18-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points UNDER 43 for Game -103

Picks

2005-12-17T09:21:00.000-06:00

I must feel like throwing my money around today.

Wager Type: Straight Bet

Selection 1: NFL Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/New England Patriots 17-December-2005 10:30 AM PST
Total Points OVER 37 for Game -110
---
Selection 2: NFL Football
Kansas City Chiefs/New York Giants 17-December-2005 2:00 PM PST
Total Points UNDER 48 for Game -107
---
Selection 3: NFL Football
Denver Broncos/Buffalo Bills 17-December-2005 5:30 PM PST
Total Points UNDER 34.5 for Game -104

Also, much like a battered wife, I continue to defend and return to my abuser--a parlay, for your consideration.

Selection Detail

1 NFL Football
New England Patriots 17-December-2005 10:30 AM PST
Money Line for Game -225

2 NFL Football
Kansas City Chiefs 17-December-2005 2:00 PM PST
Money Line for Game +125

3 NFL Football
Denver Broncos 17-December-2005 5:30 PM PST
Money Line for Game -375

Risking 10.00 to Win 31.17 USD

Hey Hey, Ho Ho, Tourney Poker's Got to Go

2005-12-16T09:33:00.000-06:00

And here's the problem with tournaments. Large multi-table, 2-table, or even single-table tournaments give you a pretty good chance to win a big chunk in return for a smallish investment. That's probably why so many fish end up in them. The odds of winning are much better than the lottery, and the skillset required is largely similar. That may just be the bitterness talking.

So, the problem. I think it can be best illustrated by looking at the hands I held when I busted out of several tournaments last night. Betting information is generally important, but since these people apparently cannot be pushed off a hand regardless of the bet size, I don't think it really matters if I was betting the pot or twice the pot. Also, since these are bust-out hands, I was short-stacked enough to have to push every time. The old axiom is that you should be happy to get your money in when you have the best of it, regardless of the result in specific situations.

Tournament 1
Blinds 100/200
Dealt AhKc UTG+1 Raise all-in for 1960
Fold to BB, who calls with Ac5c
BB wins with Club flush

Tournament 2
Blinds 100/200
UTG raises to 600
Fold to Hero, Raise all-in to 1715 with AdKc in MP
Fold back to UTG, who calls with QdKs
UTG wins with straight

Tournament 3
Blinds 100/200
Fold to Hero in SB, raise all-in to 1330 with AcJh
BB calls with Qd7h
BB wins with two pair, Queens and Sevens

Tournament 4
Blinds 50/100
UTG raises 200 to 300
Fold to Hero on button, raise 300 to 600 with KsKd
Fold to UTG, raises 1500 to 1200 with QhQs
Hero calls 655 and is all-in
UTG wins with Full House, Queens full of Deuces

And there you have the problem in tournaments. At least, online tournaments with $5 - $20 buy-ins. The fish are willing to call with virtually anything, and so it becomes so expensive to isolate with a good hand that you are practically pot-committed when you find a hand to play, especially if you play a tight-aggressive game. When a premium hand appears, you need to get as much money into the middle as possible. The fish are going to call large bets regardless of odds with an ace-high or a couple of face cards, and you will have your chips in the middle with the best of it. Jackpot!

Or not. You can hit a very bad run of suckouts like I have, and bust out of most tourneys without hitting the money. The terrible shame behind this is that you've identified the fish, managed to get them to get their money in with the worst of it, and then you're out and can't continue to exploit them. After the fourth ugly suckout last night (and to be fair, they weren't all fish...but they were bad beats), I decided to hit the ring games again. In a ring game, you can wait for premium hands, or good hands with position, and maximize your return. More importantly, if you are sucked out on, you can re-buy and keep fishing.

I bought into a .25/.50 for $20, and waited for some good hands while I got to know the table. After a while, I'm in UTG+1 and find JJ. Standard raise of $1.50 to $2. My left calls, as well as BB and SB. Flop comes 3hJhQs. Checked to me, and I bet $10 into an $8 pot to chase out the draws. My left folds, SB folds, BB re-raises $15.05 and is all-in. This guy was too loose to call a $2 pre-flop raise with queens, so I call. Turn and river come Kd Td. Villain wins as his Ah 4h makes a straight. So, with a flush draw and 3 cards to the straight, this guy re-raised me all-in. Unlike a tourney, I have the opportunity to re-buy, and you'd better believe I want another shot at this joker.

Time passes, and I find AsJs UTG+2. UTG folds, I raise $1 to $1.50. Fold around to the button, who calls, SB folds, BB (villain in previous hand) calls. Flop 6s 3d 5c. Villain checks, I bet $1. Button and villain call. Turn comes 9s. We all check. Thanks for the free card, guys. River comes 3s and I made the nut flush. Of course, since it paired the board, and I'm having that kind of night, and villain is just dumb enough to play something like 63, I have some reservations. Villain bets $3, I raise to $6, re-raise to $9, and I call. I would have rather seen myself go all-in here, but I was gun-shy, and I'm man enough to admit my cowardice. Villain shows Qs4s for a lesser flush, and I have taken back my money from him.

Since it's pretty late by this point, I leave the table, happy to be back to even. I think I'm going to really dial back the number of tourneys I play, and focus on the cash games. Tourneys offer outsized returns for your buy-in, but it just seems harder to ride the variance when you can't strike back at the weak players. Barry Greenstein mentioned in his book that he frequently buys in for close to the table minimum on NL cash games, so that he never has too much of his stake riding on one hand. I think that makes good sense. You can always buy more chips if someone sucks out on you, and the ability to go all-in at any time can be important in neutralizing a position advantage.

Love All, Serve All

2005-12-14T08:22:00.000-06:00

Well, well, well. Where to begin?

First off, I'd like to thank Joe Speaker for adding me to his blogroll. I guess my readership is now the spambots plus 1. The pressure to update regularly is building.

So, what to focus on today?

I'm going to Vegas in January. I have always wanted to make a March Madness pilgrimmage. What? March Madness isn't in January? Yeah, I never quite make it. In this case, March was looking awfully pricey, and my friend got an offer for free nights at Bally's in January. Combine that with a fare special from the local airline and you find Jackmama and his friend re-scheduling their trip to the Mecca. Of course, Bally's has to try to mess with the plan--you can only get the special pricing (some free, some not) for two of the nights. Well, we didn't just fall off the turnip truck, you know. We'll take the free Saturday and Sunday night stay, and then parlay all that savings into Thursday and Friday night stays at the Hard Rock.

I love the Hard Rock. There are legitimate complaints about the place, but I don't care. It houses two of my favorite restaurants in the whole world (Pink Taco and Mr. Lucky's), and I can play craps in peace. What do I mean, in peace? The Hard Rock likes to project an ambience of "cool," and so there is loud music playing all day. I don't understand why some people complain about the loud music. There is no slot machine noise! How can Jimi Hendrix at a decent volume be more offensive than "WHEEL.....OF......FORTUNE!!!!" over and over?

I have a dream

2005-12-12T07:39:00.000-06:00

"In a stunning change of strategy, Jackmama posts his picks after the games have been played!"

Yes, I forgot to post my picks yesterday, but I feel like I should have them on record here, anyway, so here they are. I apologize to my legions of loyal readers--the spam scripts which try to dump comment spam in new blog posts. I keep hoping that the spammers will start tracking my picks, and that they'll find more value in gambling than in spam. I am a simple man, with simple dreams.

Selection 1: NFL Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Spread +5.5 for Game -105

Selection 2: NFL Football
New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills 11- December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 36.5 for Game +101

Selection 3: NFL Football
Chicago Bears/Pittsburgh Steelers 11- December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 30 for Game -105

Selection 4: NFL Football
Washington Redskins 11-December-2005 1:05 PM PST
Spread -4 for Game -106

I am getting crushed in just about every poker game I play. Single and multi-table SNGs, Turbo SNGs, ring games, you name it. I've had to really dive down in limits in order to ride this one out. For the most part, I've been playing poker as well as I ever have, but the beats have been really bad; at a certain point, I can call the river card, because it is the 2-outer that is going to put me out of the tourney. At some point, you can only laugh about it. Ha. Ha.

I've got ambitions to write an actual poker-content article, and the first traces of an outline are forming. Wouldn't it be neat if I posted some poker articles? Oh, what do you care? You're just a spam bot.

Quoth the Raven, "Never play parlays"

2005-12-05T10:24:00.000-06:00

Looks like I wasn't the only one to be bitchslapped by Kyle Boller on a parlay. I was one minute away from collecting my $150 before the reincarnarnation of Captain Comeback strolled down the field. I'm sure that when Brian Billick gets around to posting his weekly diary on the Ravens web site, it will be all about how we saw the emergence of Kyle Boller, superstar. He probably won't mention that the drive should have ended when he overthrew Todd Heap, a pass which ought to have been easily intercepted, if not for an outstanding effort by the tight end. Oh well, that the Ravens continue to suck is no skin off my nose. Shame about the parlay, though. Winning the three totals bets helped ease my suffering.

I've started playing some poker again lately, mostly single table sit n gos. I expected to be a little rusty on my reads, but I got killed early on in by going all-in after a flop of rags with KK in two different tourneys, only to find one guy that flopped a set of 5s, and another that hit his third 7 on the river. A fine welcome back that was. So, I'm slightly down on my return as I try to find my rhythm again.

Coming Back

2005-12-04T10:44:00.000-06:00

I'm going to start updating regularly again, and what better way to start than with some NFL action.

Selection 1: NFL Football
Houston Texans/Baltimore Ravens 4-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points UNDER 37.5 for Game +104
---
Selection 2: NFL Football
Jacksonville Jaguars/Cleveland Browns 4-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 33 for Game +105
---
Selection 3: NFL Football
Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears 4-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points UNDER 30.5 for Game +107

And how about a money line parlay to spice things up?

1 NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals 4-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Money Line for Game +145

2 NFL Football
Houston Texans 4-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Money Line for Game +300

3 NFL Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-December-2005 10:00 AM PST
Money Line for Game -185

Risking 10.00 to Win 140.97 USD

Some quick picks

2005-10-30T06:41:00.000-06:00

Selection 1: NFL Football
Chicago Bears 30-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Money Line for Game +130

Selection 2: NFL Football
Miami Dolphins 30-October-2005 1:05 PM PST
Money Line for Game +131

Selection 3: NFL Football
Philadelphia Eagles 30-October-2005 1:15 PM PST
Spread +3.5 for Game -103

Back on the Bus

2005-10-14T09:02:00.000-05:00

Let's see if we can turn this NFL thing around. A couple of picks for this weekend:

Carolina Panthers 16-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Spread +1 for Game +103

Cleveland Browns 16-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Money Line for Game +225

I turned on Word Verification for comments today, because I grew tired of deleting spam comments moments after each post was submitted. Of course, this means there will be no comments, and my entire readership of spambots will be offended, but I'm willing to take the risk.

I haven't played any poker lately, and so not much to relate.

No Attention Span Theater

2005-10-05T13:06:00.000-05:00

I'm not a person to claim that you need to fully focus on the table to win at poker, although it certainly helps. There's a good chance that, especially at lower limit SNGs, you could simply wait on good starting hands and play them aggressively in order to make the money. I've done it before, watching football or a movie or something. Usually, I have to start paying attention when it gets down to 5 people, though, or the remaining players are likely to steal most of my stack, unless I get great cards right when I need them. It's not that that never happens, it's just that it, um....never happens.

So, last night I took a shot at a $22 SNG, and it went OK, except that when I made a move with AQs, I ran into KK and QQ. It either crippled me or knocked me out right there; as usual, I don't really remember. No worries, I'll just make some more money at the $11s and take another shot, right? Well, it turns out that between reading the Tiltboys book and the 2+2 sports betting forum, I didn't watch the tables well enough, and got knocked out 5th in both tourneys I played. Oh well. I may not play again for a few days, so I can work through these distractions.

I decided on another NFL play for the weekend:

Miami Dolphins/Buffalo Bills (O 33.5)

I'm leaning toward the WAS/DEN UNDER 34, too. We'll see.

Good news for the Bears, Lions and Packers. I firmly believe that the Packers and Lions now share the common afflictions of clueless management and hapless coaching, but only the unique brand of Mike Tice nincompoopery can win a race to the bottom of the division. My Bears may have a shot at 4-5 division wins this year.

Go Pack Go

2005-10-04T09:51:00.000-05:00

For a team in decline, the Packers are exceedingly generous. I had the Packers +7.5 last night, as well as a teaser (Packers +14.5, OVER 36). When I went to bed at halftime, I figured the whole weekend for a loss, and so I was pleasantly surprised to find that Favre led the team to a valiant cover, and halved my weekend losses. What a guy. I don't suppose this will quiet the legions of asshats who insist Favre should have retired two years ago, but it would be nice.

I took a look at the early lines, and had to grab this one:

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars

I also like Chicago +3 against Cleveland, but I have recused myself from betting the Bears, remember? For the truly adventurous, DET +1 against BAL looks good. It is one of the atrocities of the early 21st century that Brian Billick is allowed to coach a professional football team. He continues to squander one of the best defensive units in history, and for some reason continues to get away with it? Remember when he was considered the big offensive genious? Yeah, me neither.

Comeupance

2005-10-03T07:14:00.000-05:00

I am not as smart as I think I am. Apparently, one good week in the NFL led me to believe that I would be able to pick the pockets of fortune on a regular basis. The three picks I posted last week, plus the teaser, all bombed out. Detroit twisted the knife by pretending to score in the final seconds, but even with replay, the points came off the board. Ugh. I'm still slightly up on the season, but what a kick in the pants.

I am now 4-4 on picks, and 0-1 on teasers. Is it even worth counting the teasers? Probably not. I'll certainly have to put more effort into my picks this week, since my sense of entitlement doesn't move the ball down the field.

I haven't yet seen my name pop up in the blogger tournament on PokerStars, but I am a patient man. Imagine being one of the poor souls who has to pull up all the blogs submitted; there is some serious depravity out there. I hope these brave workers are at peace with themselves and their gods.

I bought Tales From the Tiltboys and it is a hoot. I don't think I've laughed out loud reading a book since The Daily Show's America (The Book). There is also a little part of "there but for the grace of God go I." Bastard.

I don't remember the last time I blogged about playing poker, but I'm on a winning streak. I won the last two SNGs I played, although the last one was on Friday. I guess I need to get back to the tables in order to fund some sports betting. Speaking of--I haven't looked at the line yet, but I'm going to be looking closely at the Red River Shootout (Texas/Oklahoma). Oklahoma managed to hold off Kansas State, even without Adriaan Peterson, and OU is like Kryptonite to Mack Brown. With OU completely out of the AP poll, and Texas pounding the hapless victims in its path, the line could be generous.

PokerStars Rocks

2005-09-29T18:07:00.000-05:00

I have registered to play in the
Online Poker Blogger Championship!

This event is powered by PokerStars.

Registration code: 3938942

They must have planned this thing just for me, since my blog turned two months old last week!

Week 4 Picks and Momentum

2005-09-29T07:26:00.000-05:00

I played an $11 SNG on Stars last night, and seated to my right was a player named Momentum. First hand I see him get involved in, he has Jack-rag suited and ends up knocking out the first player when he hits his flush. Next hand, he puts a middle raiser all-in in the BB with his 99 vs. AK. The 99 holds up and another player is out. Next hand, EP raises, LP re-raises, Momentum in the SB re-raises all-in, both raisers call. EP flips up TT, LP flips QQ and Momentum turns up KK. In the the first orbit, this guy knocked out three players and crippled a fourth. It was an incredible run.

I beat him heads-up when my K9 paired a K on the board against his A8. Momentum runs out for everyone. I took a big chunk of my bankroll out of Stars to fund my sportsbook account, so I need some top finishes to rebuild it.

I was tempted to make another parlay bet with my totals this week, but instead I made three straight bets. The odds of winning parlays just aren't good. Here are the picks this week:

Selection 1: NFL Football
Denver Broncos/Jacksonville Jaguars 2-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 36.5 for Game +100

Selection 2: NFL Football
Detroit Lions/Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 34 for Game -103

Selection 3: NFL Football
New York Jets/Baltimore Ravens 2-October-2005 1:05 PM PST
Total Points OVER 31 for Game +101

I think the general public tends to overvalue defense in matchups where sloppy play can create a lot of points. The Ravens defense tends to score a lot of points with Ed Reed, but they've been dormant thus far. Now, they come in against a third-string quarterback, and everyone sees this as an offensive struggle on both sides. Maybe, but these defenses can make things happen with turnovers, and it shouldn't be too hard to run the total over 31, especially if Testaverde has to come in and start airing it out in the second half. And who doesn't think that Cadillac Williams will score 34 points on his own against the Lions?

Teasin'

2005-09-27T13:22:00.000-05:00

Something possessed me to bet a teaser for NFL Week 4. We'll see.

1 NFL Football for Game
New England Patriots 2-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Spread +1 for Game

2 NFL Football for Game
Indianapolis Colts 2-October-2005 10:00 AM PST
Spread -0.5 for Game

I had UNDER 47.5 in the KC/DEN game last night. I had initially thought I should bet the over, but some quick research showed me that the under was the correct play. Well, Denver's early mastery of KC had me doubting that pick, and I decided to offset it with a second half OVER 21.5. I'd get my money back minus the vig on one bet, unless the 2nd half total was 22 or 23, in which case I had it middled, and would win them both. Well, Denver sat on the ball, which I expected, and the Chiefs never got back up, which I hadn't expected. Final Score: Den 30, KC 10. I should have just let the bet stand.

80% Winners! Call Now!

2005-09-26T07:23:00.000-05:00

What a nice weekend for betting the NFL. I hit the parlay, and went 1-1 on my picks against the spread. I'll be recusing myself from any more bets on the Bears against the spread, since I think my impartiality is compromised. I'm also temporarily tied for the week lead in my family fantasy league, and going 3-0 in the league at work. The NFL has been good to me so far. This is about the time where it may choose to start taking back. We'll see.

So, I went 1-1 in my straight bets, and hit a 3 total parlay. Does that make my NFL record 4-1 so far? I'm going to say it does, and if any of my zero readers have a problem with it, then they can let me know. Quoth Homer Simpson, "Lord, if I am doing the right thing, please give me absolutely no sign. I offer this milk and these cookies to you in gratitude. If you would like me to eat the milk and cookies, give me absolutely no sign. Thank you." Well, paraphraseth Homer Simpson, anyway. My memory isn't as good as it once was.

Three SNGs last night, one 2nd place finish. The tables were kinda wild with all-in pushmonkeys, which was kind of fun, at least until I bubbled out when my JJ ran into QQ.

Walkin' Back to Houston

2005-09-24T08:58:00.000-05:00

I played a couple of SNGs at FTP last night, but only managed a 4 and 5 finish. Just didn't get the hands when I needed them. On the plus side, I cleared some bonus money, so I'm really only out the cost of one of those tourneys. Yay for bonus money.

I felt moved to play a parlay this weekend, so here's an additional pick (wagering $10 to win $60):

1 NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals/Chicago Bears 25-September-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points UNDER 39 for Game -120

2 NFL Football
Atlanta Falcons/Buffalo Bills 25-September-2005 10:00 AM PST
Total Points OVER 36.5 for Game +100

3 NFL Football
Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks 25-September-2005 1:05 PM PST
Total Points OVER 41.5 for Game -110

Yeah, parlays tend to be sucker bets, but it's sure fun to watch that 3rd game, if the first two win.

I watched the WPT 2005 Mexican cruise limit tournament last night, and I sure felt bad for the amateur at the table. He won his way in via a Party Poker satellite, and managed to move through an impressive field of players to reach the final table with the chip lead. Then, he just donk'd all his chips away to the pro players. I know he had to play better than they showed on TV. I suppose the 3rd place money is decent consolation.

I read somewhere that TJ Cloutier referred to AK as "walkin' back to Houston." Back in the day, when TJ travelled around Texas to find a game, players from Houston would come to Dallas to play, and they all played like AK was the holy grail. They'd overvalue the hand and go broke, and that's why the Dallas players called it "walkin' back to Houston." In the first SNG last night, the player to my right went all-in with AK twice in a row, the first time to double me up, and the second time to get knocked out. Don't overvalue AK, no matter what Vince Van Patten says.

Hammerin' Helmuth

2005-09-22T07:41:00.000-05:00

I played a couple of SNGs on Full Tilt last night, and took a first and a second. I also played an obnoxiously tight SNG on Stars, which found me out in 7th after a suckout on the river. Not a bad night. In the second tourney on Full Tilt, I found the hammer heads up against a weak-tight player that I had been pushing around a little bit. He had me slightly out-chipped, and I went for a decent pre-flop raise, which he called. He'd been calling my pre-flop raises and then folding to post-flop bets, so I did it again after a 7 came out to give me middle pair. I pushed with it, and he called with top pair. Oh well. Not the best play in the world, but it's always fun to play the hammer.

I decided to put a little money where my mouth is, so here are my picks for the week, which I've actually placed bets on. We'll see how it turns out.

CHI +3 -115
NE +3 +102

I'm watching Cold Pizza on ESPN2, and Helmuth is a guest. It's been 20 whole seconds and he's a freakin' nutjob. He's decked out in his Ultimate Bet windbreaker and hat, sunglasses, and he insists on sitting ramrod-straight in his chair. The host asked him about a ratio of skill:luck, and he says 80:20, and that anyone watching TV lately can see how unlucky he's been. How can anyone still like this guy?

These are a few of my favorite things

2005-09-21T06:51:00.000-05:00

I played in the WPBT Tournament last night at Titan Poker. I didn't get terribly good cards, but I managed to steal some blinds and get enough solid hands to stay alive for a while. I tried to make a move with a flush draw against a high pair which I didn't think would call--he called, I didn't hit my flush, and I went out 37th out of 67 (or so. I don't remember). It's fun to play in tournaments where most of the people play solid poker.

Iggy set up the tournament on Titan so that the bloggers who are employed by Poker Stars and Full Tilt Poker could play. It's a shame that is necessary, because the Titan software really, really sucks. I thought it was slow, but since I run all my poker apps in Virtual PC on my mac, that may not have been the same for everyone. The chat feature was universally reviled, however. Every time there was some action, you wouldn't be able to type. Then, when you were able to type again, it started over at the beginning of the text box, so the end of your sentence was at the beginning. Then, you had to wait until action had moved on before you could delete the whole entry, and start the whole sorry process over again. Turning off the dealer messages alleviated this somewhat, but nothing could make it tolerable. Also, the action buttons are not intuitive. Want to raise? Type in the amount and click enter...but that doesn't execute the raise. It just changes the amount on the raise button, which you then click. I had moved $50 into Titan in order to cover the $20+1 tourney and a little ring game action, but after getting more and more irritated by the software in the NL games, I took my remaining $17.75 and went home. And here we reach my final complaint--I now have to wait 24 - 48 hours for the money to go back into Neteller. What a circus.

I play at Poker Stars and Full Tilt Poker. I have never had an issue with the customer service or software with Poker Stars, and although I am still relatively new to Full Tilt, I love their software (except for the avatars. I prefer Stars, where I can upload my own). I tried Party Poker, but I did not like their software at all, and the reliance on the web browsers combined with the ads soured me on it. I know that all the fish are at Party, and that's where the money is to be made, but I don't care. I play poker because it's fun, and because I want to get better at it. I find that the players I encounter in the $11 SNGs on FTP and Stars are mostly pretty good, and I have a good time playing there. It's a nice bonus that I'm able to make enough to slowly grow my online bankroll, at least enough to weather the periodic dips.

So, um...Titan and Party bad, FTP and Poker Stars good.

You Can Take the Saints out of New Orleans

2005-09-20T07:08:00.000-05:00

But you can't take the suck out of the Saints. All of the people that want to rally around the Saints as the new "America's Team" have clearly never watched the Saints play. Their trademark is stupid mistakes and penalties, as we saw last night. I think Joe Horn is learning that it's a tough task to transform from showboating asshole to inspirational leader, as well. Oh well, it was a more interesting game than the Cowboys v. Redskins, if only for the Stooges-like performance of the Saints.

It's been a little while since I played any poker, as football season crept up behind me and then grabbed me by the throat. I played a SNG last night on Full Tilt, though, and made it to 3rd. I didn't play all that well, since I was concentrating on football, but I guess that helped me to fold my way down to 5 players, as well. I played in one of the Katrina tournaments on Poker Stars last week, and after about 15 minutes, I got bored and wanted to watch football, so I went all-in until someone knocked me out.

My readership numbers in the single digits, and so I feel I have a whole lot of leeway on content in this blog. So, prepare for some football content to creep in, since it is my single obsession during the Fall and early Winter. I've been playing around with YPP (yards per point) numbers for help in handicapping games, and it's forcing me to face some of my football biases. For example, would you believe that I show Chicago to be 4.5 point favorites over the Bengals this weekend, or that I have the Chiefs as 9 point favorites over the Broncos? The opening lines for those games are Denver -3 and Cincinnati -3. I think the CIN line may be accurate, but the DEN line looks like an attempt by the linemaker to balance the action.

Maybe I'll start posting a pick or two on this blog, just for kicks. Let's kick off the action with these picks:

Chicago +3
Tampa Bay -2.5
San Francisco +6.5

Live poker is rigged

2005-08-30T09:15:00.000-05:00

From CardPlayer's live updates at the Bike:

Date / Time: 2005-08-29 20:55:00
Title: Gabe Kaplan Takes a Big Hit
Log: After a flop of 10d-4h-2c, Matt Elsby is all in against Gabe Kaplan. Elsby shows pocket aces, but Kaplan flopped a set. Elsby was way behind, needing to catch an ace to stay alive. The turn card? The ace of diamonds. Kaplan suddenly becomes the underdog, with a single out in the deck to make quads. The river card is a blank (Kd), and Elsby wins a big pot to catapult up to $118,000 in chips. Kaplan, who has been among the chip leaders, was knocked down to $45,000, and he was visibly displeased with that bad beat.

Date / Time: 2005-08-29 20:15:00
Title: An Improbable Beat
Log: Two players got their money in preflop. One with pocket kings, the other with pocket jacks. After a flop of K-J-7 the player with pocket kings hopped out of his seat and exclaimed, "Yes, yes, yes." The turn brought a Q, and the player with pocket kings pumped his fist. See if you can guess the end of this bad beat story. The river brought a xxxxx.

A jack!

The player with pocket jacks hit his one outer on the river to eliminate the player with pocket kings. "No," the player with pocket kings said, as he turned away from the table, shocked at the turn of events that saw a nearly certain double up instead send him to the rail.

9 2 4 1

2005-08-30T07:26:00.000-05:00

I'm back into the 11s. Well, on Poker Stars, I'm back into the 11s. I think I'm going to switch to ring games on Full Tilt to work off my bonus, because the Sit N Gos are so freaking dull. Even the 5.50s fill up weak-tight players that take forever to knock out. I bubbled out in a 5.50 on Full Tilt last night, and I think it has a lot to do with being bored, bored, bored.

The 11s on Stars treated me much better. Except for the 9th place finish where I held AK and the flop came out A-x-x rainbow. I bet out strong, was re-raised all-in and called. Of course, the guy flopped a set. Low sets tend to be a blind spot for me, especially since so many online players will play any A-rag, and so I figured him for AA with a lower kicker. Oh well, I shouldn't have been so eager to call an all-in that early, anyway. The other 2 tourneys I played ended with 2nd and 1st place finishes. I was especially happy with the 1st place finish, because I was fighting tilt for most of the hands from three-handed on down. One of the guys was just slow as hell, either multi-tabling or just annoying. When 3rd place bubbled out, he said, "good luck, jack. It's going to take a while." heh. It did take a while, but it was worth it.

WCOOP is for Closers

2005-08-29T07:31:00.000-05:00

On Saturday, I played in the 1800 FPP satellite to the $1000 WCOOP NLHE tournament. I won my way into this tourney in a 180 FPP satellite. Out of 305 people, the first 9 places moved on, and I made it to 22. I don't think I've even played a total of 10 multi-table tournaments, so these two finishes are encourging to me. I think I'll play some more regular tournaments, and see if I can do well.

Slowly turning things around in $5.50 SNGs. I was in the black for this weekend, and if my play holds up, I'll probably start playing the $11 tourneys on Poker Stars. I don't know if I've got the strength to try another one on Full Tilt, but I suppose I should give it another shot.

I've been reading Harrington on Hold 'Em Volume 1, and it's as good as everyone says.

Ye Olde Hammer

2005-08-26T07:23:00.000-05:00

Mrs. Jackmama and I had a friendly wager last night, in which we'd each play a Stars $5.50 SNG, and whoever placed better was the winner. As soon as Jackmama the Smaller was put to bed, I jumped into a tourney. As the more responsible parent, Mrs. Jackmama actually waited until Jackmama the Smaller was asleep.

It may have been the first hand, or maybe the second hand, when Mrs. Jackmama looked down to find JJ in early position. I wasn't paying attention this early, but I'd put her on a medium raise with that hand. Everyone folds to the button, who raises all-in. Mrs. Jackmama has some gambler in her, so she calls. Button turns over AK, and nails an A on the river to put her out 9th. Well, it took some pressure off of me with our bet.

I played pretty well in my tourney, and I'm feeling better about my decisions. The other day I was browsing Paul Phillips' FAQ, and came across his response to people seeking advice:

I would like to talk about poker or obtain poker feedback.

Best of luck. Play tighter and more aggressively.

I think I'd been turning LAG-gy recently, while still believing I was a conservative player. This made for some very bad decisions. As I play now, I repeat that advice in my head. As long as I know that I am playing tight-aggressive, I feel like I can take the occasional shot to mix it up, but I'm not taking them nearly as often as I was. It's not really as important as my feeling that I made the right decisions, but I took 1st in my SNG. I guess I overachieved in my bet with the wife.

During the tourney, there was a dropping of the hammer.

Yawn

2005-08-25T08:34:00.000-05:00

We've all seen the blog entries and forum postings. After a devastating suckout or two, the author declares that he's thinking about moving up in limits, where such bad play is rare. Of course, bad play is to be found at every level, and it's ridiculous to think that you'll make more money from a group of good players than from a bunch of chasing fish. But still, bad beats drive men to crazy thoughts.

I played an $11 single table SNG at Full-Tilt last night. Yeah, it's not high limits, but since I've been playing the $5.50s, I figured the play would be a little better, and probably a little better than the $11s on Poker Stars.

Oh. My. God.

I have never sat at such a rocky table. Ever. Virtually every pre-flop raise took down the pot. I got virtually no cards, and still managed to maintain a decent stack by stealing with periodic semi-bluffs. It was the most awful experience of my poker life. The levels move pretty quickly on FTP, and there were still 4 people in after an hour and 15 minutes, moving the same 3 or 4 big blinds amongst each other. I finally hit a straight with a straight flush draw and went all-in with it, only to be called by a higher straight, and when my flush didn't come I bubbled out. Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster, my ordeal was over.

I did manage to draw a lesson from that agonizingly dull tourney. I played with the rockiest of the rocks and managed to hang in there with them, but I probably could have made a lot of aggressive moves early, and made some more or loosened up the table. Next time, that's what I'lll do, because the only thing worse than going out before the money, is going out before the money after an hour and a half.

What Might Have Been

2005-08-22T12:14:00.000-05:00

It was time to mix things up yesterday, so I ponied up 180 FPP from my PokerStars account to enter a satellite to the 1800 FPP satellite to the $2500 main event of the WCOOP. So, it was a satellite, to a satellite, to an actual cash money event. Got it?

First hand, I flopped top pair, and bet the pot. One person remains, calling my bet. Nothing happens on the turn and the river to make me think he has me beaten, but he calls another pot-sized bet on the turn, and when I check the river to him, he goes all-in. I couldn't for the life of me think of how he could have me beaten, but the betting gave me pause. I call. He had 5-2 offsuit, matching nothing on the board. Basically threw away 180 FPP on a stupid bluff to open the tourney. Whatever, man.

I played solid, but not spectacular poker. Managed to avoid big pots with marginal hands, and caught a few saving cards on the river. Nothing that could be considered a bad beat, but I'm sure some of the people I knocked out believe differently. I can't believe the whining of some people. If the beats are easier to take after some whining, more power to you, I guess.

The tourney sent the top 26 finishers on to the next tourney, and the 27th place finisher got the remaining points (1400). Out of 250 or so people, I felt pretty good about finding my way into the 30s. Of course, that's when I started thinking about surviving instead of winning, and my stack started to waste away. As the 33rd person went out, I was looking pretty anemic. Then the deck reached out and hit me, and I took advantage of a guy at the table who kept trying to put me all-in. When the 27th place person dropped, I was 3rd in chips, and looking at a pretty solid finish.

Guess what?

When the prize is the same for all places 1-26, the tournament ends after the 27th person goes out. I guess no one wants to play for pride.

The fun thing is that I'm in a satellite to a main event, and the top 9 players in the satellite move on. I hope I play well, and get some cards, because I would be excited just to play in a big money event.

Sorry for the rambling, but I can't seem to organize my thoughts today.

Online Poker is Rigged

2005-08-21T07:35:00.000-05:00

I don't usually go in for hand histories, but this one was too funny to pass up. Of course, online poker IS rigged against people that play like this, but I think that has more to do with the game of poker, than the implementation at PokerStars.

Keep in mind that this is the very first hand.

PokerStars Game #2385364854: Tournament #11553123, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2005/08/20 - 22:11:16 (ET)
Table '11553123 1' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: JohnnyAPoker (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: anthony46217 (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: Kpender (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: Jackmama (1500 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 5: xHolden1229x (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: Ottawa613 (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: Blue1321 (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: chuckie300 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: hittman66 (1500 in chips)
anthony46217: posts small blind 10
Kpender: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jackmama [Jc 2s]
Jackmama: folds
xHolden1229x: folds
Blue1321 said, "was chip leader went all in 5 times and lost all of them to crappy cards"
Blue1321 said, "i need to change my luck"
Ottawa613: folds
Blue1321: raises 20 to 40
chuckie300: folds
hittman66: folds
JohnnyAPoker: calls 40
Jackmama has returned
anthony46217: calls 30
Kpender: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [6c 2c Kd]
anthony46217: checks
Kpender: checks
Blue1321: bets 60
JohnnyAPoker: folds
anthony46217: raises 240 to 300
Kpender: folds
Blue1321: calls 240
*** TURN *** [6c 2c Kd] [Qs]
hittman66 said, "me to j off called 500 dllr raise with 7-3 aand wins"
anthony46217: bets 1160 and is all-in
Blue1321: calls 1160 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [6c 2c Kd Qs] [Kh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
anthony46217: shows [Ks Th] (three of a kind, Kings)
Blue1321: shows [7c 7d] (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
anthony46217 collected 3080 from pot
Blue1321 [observer] said, "ouch lol"

Baby Steps

2005-07-27T07:03:00.000-05:00

I have been brutally cold-decked for a week or so now. After a few days, I was actually able to start laughing about it. Bluffing? Out of the question--someone has pocket kings. Raise with AQo? No, sir--someone's pair of fives will find another five on the turn. I'm losing races, I'm losing hands where I get all my money in with the best of it, and I'm failing to steal anything. Also, as a result of all these bad cards and beats, I've started playing erratically and, well, stupidly.

I've had to move down to the $5.50 SnGs, in order to slow the bleeding of my bankroll. Last night, I finally made it back into the money, finishing 3rd in a single table $5.50. I saw some good cards, made some good reads, and took advantage of some weak betting. The sense of dread that had been accompanying flops disappeared. I made $3.50 for an hour and a half of work, and I couldn't feel better.

I leave for Las Vegas tomorrow, so I'll be taking a break from online play. I'm going out for defcon, the "largest underground hacking event in the world." If you have any computer security interests or responsibilities, you should be heading to defcon every year.

The weekend is jam-packed, but I hope to spend some time playing live games. I have only played in a poker room once before, and that was last year during defcon. I headed over to the Bellagio and bought into the 2/5 NL game for 200--no more, no less. I explained to the dealer and those around me that I was new to live play, and to please let me know if I did anything stupid or offensive.

Settling in, stacking my chips, and trying to get comfortable, when I look down and find KK. On my first hand. Still trying to figure out what the hell is going on. No time like the present to jump in. I threw out a weak raise to $15 and had one caller. Flop comes K-x-x. My heart pounding at 200 beats per second, I bet $50, hoping to take it down there and get comfortable. Caller re-raises me all-in. What the hell? He counts out his bet, which ended up putting him all-in $160 for the hand, meaning I could call and have a lonely $40 left in front of me.

I didn't know if he had flopped one of the rag sets, or if he was just picking on the self-professed new guy, but I had no option but to get my money out there. The turn came A, and then a rag on the river. My 3 kings were faced with -- AQ. I guess he had been taking a stab at the pot, trying to intimidate the new guy. After one hand, my stack had grown to $360.

I spent the next two hours giving it all back. I got some very weak cards, and my constant folding, after showing KK early, killed any action I might have gotten on my few good hands. Further, I just wasn't a very experienced NL player. Still, it was a great experience, and I look forward to playing again this year.

Grab the bull by the, um, ya know

2005-07-22T07:08:00.000-05:00

I decided to catch up on some WPT events which have been waiting patiently on my Tivo. The first was the Bay 101 Shooting Stars tournament, which Phil Gordon won. I like Phil Gordon, so that was nice. Chris Moneymaker was one of the targeted pros, and he mentioned in one of his interviews that he continues to work as an accountant, and only plays poker part time. I did not know that. I've been known to call Moneymaker a one-hit wonder, since he hasn't really won since the 2003 WSOP. If he's only playing a handful of tournaments per year, then that makes sense. I apologize to Chris for my unwarranted bashing, should he ever stop by this blog.

The other event was from The Mirage and Gabe Kaplan was at the final table. I'm past the whole "Kotter" thing, and I know he's been playing for many years. I was shocked by the passive style of play he adopted. I know he can't have played that way through the whole tournament, and sitting at a table with Scotty Nguyen, John Juanda and Eli Elezra is tricky, but he sure allowed a lot of free cards. Still, he finished 3rd, so what do I know?

When it got down to Elezra and Watkinson heads-up, Elezra flopped a pair of aces, and slowplayed them against Watkinson, who had nothing (or close to nothing. It's hard to remember). The turn came a rag, and Elezra continued to slowplay it. At this point, Vince Van Patten says, "He did it before and he's doing it again. He's going to milk it like a bull."

Huh?

Vince Van Patten cracks me up. He's the finest hipster doofus on television since Kramer. Many of his nicknames for hands don't make sense. One of my favorite local commercials is for a casino here. Vince Van Patten strolls up in his fancy suit, sans tie, shirt open a couple buttons at the collar. "If you can't spot the sucker at the table, youuuuurrrre it," he confides. "Ruuuulllllle number one in the great game of poker." A little later, he quips, "Got crocodile blood? You're gonna need it."

However, milking a bull seems a little beyond his scope of goofiness. Thanks to the miracle of Tivo, I was able to go back and listen again, hearing that he actually said "holstein." Well, that's a little better. Not as funny as bull, though.

Swallows returning to Capistrano

2005-07-21T12:01:00.000-05:00

I started playing a lot of online SnGs on PokerStars a few weeks back, and I was cleaning up. Virtually every tournament found me in the money, and my heads-up play significantly improved, to where I feel pretty good about how I approach heads-up play.

This week, I saw a stunning reversal. I went 7 or 8 tourneys without finding the money, and busting out 6, 7, 8. While I wasn't seeing many good hands, I also got the feeling that I was misplaying many of them, especially in later rounds, where I always seemed to be on the losing end. So I went from cocky know-it-all to sad sack in pretty short order.

I joined a $10 + 1 single-table last night and saw BadBlood44 sitting across the table. I may be new to the Poker Blogosphere, but I played in Charlie's Tournament and was introduced to many poker bloggers. I made a note to self, "Be careful around BadBlood44" and dove into the tourney. I busted out 5th, I think. I had started thinking, though, and I realized that my game needed to be a lot better now, and not just because I'm bound to run into random poker bloggers at the table.

PokerStars sent a record number of people to the WSOP; something like 1200 people. So, the whole time I was beating up on SnGs, a large swath of the good players were in Las Vegas. I could no longer count on 4 to 5 people busting themselves out early, and needed to start playing for chips a lot earlier.

I entered another SnG. I'm still seeing some awful starting hands, but I can't just wait for the cards to turn. I skimmed the No Limit section of Super System 2, and Doyle mentions that his strategy is to play a lot of hands, so opponents have a hard time putting him on a hand. He especially likes small suited connectors, because they can become big hands, without appearing to be big hands. So, people frequently accuse him of being lucky, when it's simply a matter of being in so many hands, and when one does hit, it hits big. Oh, and a big part of that is that a loose appearance allows him to pick up a lot of blinds, which add up. As a matter of fact, he can make enough picking up blinds that he can afford the occasional beat on a long shot.

I'm not likely to start playing a super-aggressive Doyle style of play, but what he writes made a lot of sense to me. Early in the tourney, still 9 people at the table, and I think I was in middle position. One or two callers to me, I raise with Q3s, BB calls and I think one early caller calls. Flop is all spades, king-high. I figure to have the best hand, and I'm willing to take the risk that the one card which can beat me is out there. Down to me and the BB, who continues to call my raises. No change on the turn or river, and so my KQ flush is the nuts, as long as he doesn't have the A, which I determined pretty early wasn't the case. He had me covered, but just barely, so I doubled up and left him with a few crumbs.

This was a pretty cheap gamble for me. A pre-flop raise of 60 early in the tourney is cheap, and I figured I had the nuts after the flop. With Q3s. All told, I was pretty happy about that play, and I went back to my normal tight-aggressive play. A comment cracked me up, though.

"raises with q3s," comments the know-it-all across the table.

Yeah, I'll do it again, too. Make sure you call me, buddy

In the end, I was heads-up against him for the tourney, at a significant disadvantage-- 10,500 to 3,000. I battled back pretty close to even, and then went all-in with AJo, he barely had me covered and called with KQo. He caught a queen on the river to knock me out.

I'm pretty happy with the way I played that tourney, even though I wish the ace had held up. I won't misunderestimate the players on Stars again.

Genesis

2005-07-20T09:16:00.000-05:00

I wonder how many poker blogs are started because of a bad run of cards. Some sort of cold deck causation. I could probably check, since one of the miracles of technology is the automatic archiving of personal blogs. Behold the march of progress.

So, yeah. I've been playing for a while, mainly PokerStars Sit 'n Gos, with some success. Some success being that I have more money now than when I started, which puts me in a far better situation than many find themselves. I play lower levels, having recently moved from $5 + .50 to $10 + 1. I guess it doesn't matter which level you play, there's always going to be someone waiting to suck out on you.

A couple nights ago, I spent 4 tourneys staring at every combination of J8o, Q5o, 63 suited, etc. I folded almost all my hands, and then when I'd try to capitalize on my table image with a steal, callers fell over each other to grab my money. Unlucky. That's poker.

Last night, I played a pretty solid $10 + 1 SnG. The deck remains cold, but I saw a couple opportunities and capitalized on them. Down to 4 remaining, and I was one of two in ugly position. We each had about $1500T and the other two were roughly even at about $5000T apiece. I find myself in this position a lot lately, and I can't entirely blame the cards. I play well enough to survive in tournaments, but I rarely build a large stack. I'm hoping to gain some insight in Dan Harrington's books which will help me adjust my early and mid-round strategies.

So, on the short stack, I find AJo. Since I'm so weak, I go all-in hoping to steal the blinds, which are 200/400. The other shortstack calls, and he has me covered. He turns over A4o. The flop pairs his 4, and I do not improve. I had my money in when I was heavily favored, so I can't be too upset about it. I am concerned about my consistently weak position in these late rounds, though. Having to go all-in to stay alive is no way to play.

De-blogger-fy

2005-07-20T08:49:00.000-05:00

I don't know if Blogger appreciates this or not, but since I hate that search bar that appears across the top, I figure that passing on information related to the elimination of that bar will make the world a slightly better place.

It's pretty straightforward. Go to the Template tab for some editing, and scroll down until you find the <body> tag. Surround the tag thusly:

<noembed>
<body>
</noembed>

That's it. No more Blogger bar.

frist!

2005-07-20T08:44:00.000-05:00

How charming. Starting out a blog with a first post.